Paul’s Perilous Prognostications

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I found this bit of Hurricane preparedness, from KTRK Channel 13 in Houston…

You have to wonder what they were thinking…

Was it incase the wind blew the car away.

Was it to prevent the car from floating away in flooding.

I am pretty sure that he carpet over the roof was to fend off flying debris.

I have to believe there were quantities of beer involved in the planning and implementation, or they have done it for years, and haven’t lost a car yet.

It would be nice to know how the car came out…

I was walking in to work this morning, thinking that it such a beautiful day, and how much it would change, not only in the next few hours but also in the 24 hours.

I thought of what it must have been like in the past when storms such were approaching, and you had no idea what was in store. Now we know that the center of Hanna will pass the hampton roads area around 2PM Saturday afternoon, with winds in the 30’s and 40’s.

So I just looked at the 5PM NHC outlook, and it looks as if
Hannah will either hit us directly as a tropical storm on Satuday afternoon, or pass by just offshore. I refuse to turn on any local news, because I know I’ll be agravated to no end, as I am sure they’ll be exploring the disaster that is looming off the coast.
They have to be chomping at bit, after the let down, of Gustav only having minimal impact.
BTW it looks like Hannah will be a strong Tropical Storm here when it gets to the Hampton Roads area, so make all appropriate preparations.

As of 4pm EST January 6th 2006 the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season has “OFFICIALLY” ended. The season started off interestingly enough, with initial projections of of 12 named storms, with I believe the forecast was 4 making landfall. I believe the final count of tropical systems is 30 with 27 named storms and 16 of those making landfall in Central or North America. The season started off on a record pace, with Arlene kicking it off just 8 days into the season, ending with Zeta, the latest forming Tropical Storm on record. on the second to last day of the year. If you do the math, that is 27 named storms over 27 weeks, and all you can say is dang! I hope the guys at the NHC get a performance bonus. 

Watching the media after Katrina, stumble over themselves trying to hype every occurrence of convection over the Atlantic as the next possible Hurricane, and then trying to find a model projection that would have landfall in U.S. was almost humorous if it wasn’t so disturbing.

A lot of lessons were learned this year, the lesson that I hope remains etched in everyone’s mind the lives in a threat area, is that when something that big is coming your way Get out of the way. I remember as a child when my grandparents went to Mardi Gras in 1970, they passed through Gulfport and Biloxi 6 months after the storm had devastated the area. They brought back a book of pictures and accounts of survivors of the storm, and the 2 things that have stuck in my mind all these years, were the photographs of the ships that were driven high and dry, and the story and photos of the ill-fated Richeliu Apartments “Hurricane Party”. There are several reasons I bring this up, the first being the impression that it put in my young mind that stays with me to this day, and the interviews I saw and read of Katrina survivors that had survived Camille, and the fact that a life lesson such as that didn’t last a lifetime. If you want a history lesson on the destructive power of a hurricane take a look at NOAA/NWS Photo Archive. 

Below is the “Final” Tropical Discussion For the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Lets hope that 2006 brings a calmer Atlantic. Big kudo’s to the staff of the National Hurricane Center, for all there hard work in keeping the public informed.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 062031
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND IS NOW LIMITED TO JUST A FEW SKINNY BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. AS SUCH… ZETA NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE… WHICH MEANS THAT BOTH IT AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON HAVE ENDED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/6. ZETA HAS MADE A JOG BACK TO THE NORTHWEST… BUT THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS BEEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 06 KT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ZETA IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS… AND TURN NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS AS THE REMNANT LOW COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. BY 72 HOURS… THE SKELETAL REMAINS OF ZETA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY… ZETA SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION…ZETA RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY…OR ACE… SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO… UNTIL THE 2006 SEASON BEGINS… UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE COMEBACK… THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR 2005… FINALLY.

FORECASTER STEWART

As this years record breaking tropical storm season comes to an end, and as remnants of Tropical Depression 27 have regenerated and been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gamma, all the media whores in an effort to pump up their ratings start jumping on the global warming band wagon it is good to find some good common sense science. Dr William Gray in a statement to the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works brought to light that this activity is cyclical, not a result of global warming. 
The basic problem is that no one looks at the big picture, we have only been able to observe the weather and climate on a global scale since 1960, with the launch of the first weather satellite (TIROS 1), and it wasn’t until the 1970’s that the brought the GOES satellites online, and the ability to gather and process weather and climate information on a consistent basis 24 hours a day. So what was the method of gathering information prior to age of space based observation, it was land and ship based observation, and how much of the globe could be observed on a daily, weekly or monthly basis? Then there was the issue of putting all that data together, which was a daunting task in itself. 
So now we are in the age of instant information, with the ability observe all the earth’s phenomena with a few clicks of a mouse, and because most of us weren’t around during the last phase of high tropical activity and we have this cool term “global warming” to blame things on, because as we all know global warming is the fault of greedy corporate America, we instantly believe what the talking heads on TV tell us. For example El NiÒo, how much of the world’s woes are now blamed on El NiÒo?

Here are the plain and simple facts:
Global Warming happens on a regular basis, and has happened for a very long time, tree rings will tell you that.
There wasn’t a hole in the ozone, until somebody looked.
El NiÒo happens about every 7 years.
Tropical Storms are a natural phenomena, not manufactured by a subsidiary of Halliburton.

Does a tree falling alone in the forest, make any sound?