Paul’s Perilous Prognostications

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Watching Sunday Night Football tonight, once again reminded me of why I hate network television affiliates, and the garbage they spew. WAVY is in the process of trying to make something out of nothing once again, with their latest promo. I believe the quote was “WAVY TV protecting you from the threat that was Hanna”, what is that supposed to mean…

I didn’t see it myself, but I was told that during one of the regular interruptions at ~9AM when it was clear that Hanna was not a real threat that WAVY was saying that the worst was yet to come…

It is the overselling of events like tropical storms by whomever, causes the complacency  that causes people to ignore legitimate warnings a real threat at a later date. It was our friend Mayor of New Orleans the was quoted as saying that Gustav was the “Storm of the Century” and “The Mother of all storms” 

Hurricane Ike on Sunday Night 9/7

So now we have Hurricane Ike hitting Cuba, and as of the 11PM NHC update. and the Southerly trend has stopped, and the 120Hr forecast looks like the current landfall is the Texas Louisiana  border, and if this storm continues what will the fear mongers call this one, cant use the the ones used for Gustav, or can they. Just like the local furniture store ads, that have the sale of the year at least once a month, and is closing their mattress department…

So I just looked at the 5PM NHC outlook, and it looks as if
Hannah will either hit us directly as a tropical storm on Satuday afternoon, or pass by just offshore. I refuse to turn on any local news, because I know I’ll be agravated to no end, as I am sure they’ll be exploring the disaster that is looming off the coast.
They have to be chomping at bit, after the let down, of Gustav only having minimal impact.
BTW it looks like Hannah will be a strong Tropical Storm here when it gets to the Hampton Roads area, so make all appropriate preparations.

HYPE-U-WEATHER So here we are on the first day of spring 2006, and our friends at HYPE-U=WEATHER have decided that 3 months before the start of the tropical storm season to come out with a prediction of a “Major Hurricane” hitting the U.S. Northeast this year. They make comparisons to weather patterns and sea surface temperature anomalies of the 1930’s 40’s and 50’s to support their theory. There are a lot of factors to consider here, first is the fact that were talking about a season that is 3 months away, and the patterns that govern the development and movement of tropical systems haven’t fully started in motion yet, the second is that the tracking of storms has changed a lot since these patterns they are talking about as measurements then we either land based or from ships trying to avoid the storm. There were no weather satellites, hurricane hunter aircraft, computer models etc… All of this coming from an organization that essentially missed all but 1 winter storm prediction in the winter of 2005/6. I do love that their “Chief” Hurricane Forecaster is going out on a limb and predicting that the 2006 tropical season “COULD” be less active then the 2005 season, I think there is a very high probability the 2006 season WILL be less active then the record breaking 2005 season.

Okay, I know TV weather guys are infatuated with their super dooper Doppler X thousand radar, but why do they feel compelled to not only show the local radar when there is absolutely no precipitation for hundreds of miles, but they also feel it is important to show the animated version with the little computer generated sweep going around of nothingness. Tonight was one of those rare instances (very rare) where I happened to be in the same room when the local news was on, and it was the weather segment. So being as there is nothing of note in our forecast that the current radar can see I think the closest weather coming our way is in the neighborhood of Iowa, but this guy felt compelled to point out that there was nothing on the radar over each and every county in the area, when a quick hey look its clear and nothing to worry about until Saturday night, back to you Jane would have sufficed, or at least going to a national map to discuss the potential for Saturday night. It was one of those instances that he was trying real hard to make something of nothing…
So what I am wondering is… Are the viewers that cynical, that they have to be shown not only nothing, but animated nothingness, or do the TV stations have to justify the cost of the “radar” so they feel compelled to use it… 
PS Have you ever noticed that when the local NWS radar goes down, many TV stations radars also have problems….

Apologies to the few TV meteorologists that actually know what they are talking about…