Paul’s Perilous Prognostications

• About
• Main

Ok it has been a while, a long while…

But back to business, I’ll try to post more often, just to keep Dave on his toes…

We had a great July as far a rain goes, but a week into August, and no rain has Dave all fired up…

So to help lower his blood pressure, if anyone out there is really good at rain dances, could you please do one for dave…

Thanks

I really think Dave sends me articles like this Jersey scientists try to put brakes on hurricanes to set me off, I had whole rant about the media hype surrounding TS Chris, maybe next storm. 
The article is about a couple of New Jersey Scientists that have a plan to deploy 1.6 million pumps over an area twice the size of New Jersey, these pumps would then pump colder water from a depth of 400 feet to the surface in an effort to cool the surface temperature of the water, which in theory would temper the storm to a lower level. My basic belief is that anytime you mess with nature, you get smacked up-side the head HARD. I am not even going to go into the environmental issues here, but my basic belief is that Hurricanes exist for a reason, moving water or heat or both, a Hurricane sucks up huge amounts of water and energy from the ocean and transports it elsewhere. 
What we are going to look at here is the basic logistics and economics of a plan of this scale, and I am going to make a lot of assumptions here. From the article the pumps are described as tubes 3 feet in diameter and 400 feet long. Now lets add some type of floatation ring around this thing, so lets call it 4 feet by 4 feet, now we need a 400 foot suction tube that is going to need to be somewhat rigid like ducting for a dryer, so lets say in stored mode it is 8 feet tall. so were looking at something that measures 4 x 4 x 8 or 128 cubic feet. Now lets take a look at a Nimitz class aircraft carrier (Stick with me here, it will make sense) 1,097 feet long, we’ll split the difference between hull and flight deck width/beam and call it 200 feet wide and 18 stories or 180 feet tall, so lets take that carrier and put it in a box, that box would be 1097 x 200 x 180 or 39.5 million cubic feet, pretty big box. So lets take the pumps at 128 cubic feet and multiply that by 1.6 million and we get 204,800,000 cubic feet required to contain all these pumps. 
Now lets look at deployment the article stated an area twice the size of New Jersey, or 13 Rhode Islands, or 16,000 square miles, this comes out to 100 per square mile or roughly 1 pump every 500 feet. Now lets just assume the pattern is something like 80 miles by 200 miles, you are going to need 800 ships carrying 2,000 pumps moving at 20 miles per hour (in rough seas), dropping a pump every 30 seconds, and it will take them 10 hours to deploy this array. The United States Navy currently has 281 deployable ships, Ronald Reagan wanted a 600 ship Navy, and it was to expensive. So now we have a 16,000 square mile mine field littered with these pumps, so I am guessing it would take a week or so to gather up the surviving pumps, which would be a complete nightmare, unless each one had a tracking beacon, which would still be a nightmare, and how many of these things are going to wash up on beaches, injuring people and or marine life in the process.
Now lets look at the economics the total price tag was quoted at 1 billion dollars, which is not even close in my estimate, wont even cover the cost of the fleet of ships to deploy the pumps, or the cost of the pumps, my guess would be in the neighborhood of $100 each so $1.6 Billion, maybe they can bring them in for less, quantity discount. Now you have to figure certain loss of units per storm lets say 10% or 160,000, and then the time to refurbish the pumps, and repackage for the next storm.
So what happens if the next storm is coming in a few days and its bigger and coming faster…
The other big question is who makes the call on deployment, the President, the DHS, or the NHC, and where and when do you deploy, last time I looked 72 hour track errors are in the neighborhood 150 nautical miles. 
Instead of giving this plan a penny, why not gave more money to the tropical prediction…

HYPE-U-WEATHER So here we are on the first day of spring 2006, and our friends at HYPE-U=WEATHER have decided that 3 months before the start of the tropical storm season to come out with a prediction of a “Major Hurricane” hitting the U.S. Northeast this year. They make comparisons to weather patterns and sea surface temperature anomalies of the 1930’s 40’s and 50’s to support their theory. There are a lot of factors to consider here, first is the fact that were talking about a season that is 3 months away, and the patterns that govern the development and movement of tropical systems haven’t fully started in motion yet, the second is that the tracking of storms has changed a lot since these patterns they are talking about as measurements then we either land based or from ships trying to avoid the storm. There were no weather satellites, hurricane hunter aircraft, computer models etc… All of this coming from an organization that essentially missed all but 1 winter storm prediction in the winter of 2005/6. I do love that their “Chief” Hurricane Forecaster is going out on a limb and predicting that the 2006 tropical season “COULD” be less active then the 2005 season, I think there is a very high probability the 2006 season WILL be less active then the record breaking 2005 season.

As of 4pm EST January 6th 2006 the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season has “OFFICIALLY” ended. The season started off interestingly enough, with initial projections of of 12 named storms, with I believe the forecast was 4 making landfall. I believe the final count of tropical systems is 30 with 27 named storms and 16 of those making landfall in Central or North America. The season started off on a record pace, with Arlene kicking it off just 8 days into the season, ending with Zeta, the latest forming Tropical Storm on record. on the second to last day of the year. If you do the math, that is 27 named storms over 27 weeks, and all you can say is dang! I hope the guys at the NHC get a performance bonus. 

Watching the media after Katrina, stumble over themselves trying to hype every occurrence of convection over the Atlantic as the next possible Hurricane, and then trying to find a model projection that would have landfall in U.S. was almost humorous if it wasn’t so disturbing.

A lot of lessons were learned this year, the lesson that I hope remains etched in everyone’s mind the lives in a threat area, is that when something that big is coming your way Get out of the way. I remember as a child when my grandparents went to Mardi Gras in 1970, they passed through Gulfport and Biloxi 6 months after the storm had devastated the area. They brought back a book of pictures and accounts of survivors of the storm, and the 2 things that have stuck in my mind all these years, were the photographs of the ships that were driven high and dry, and the story and photos of the ill-fated Richeliu Apartments “Hurricane Party”. There are several reasons I bring this up, the first being the impression that it put in my young mind that stays with me to this day, and the interviews I saw and read of Katrina survivors that had survived Camille, and the fact that a life lesson such as that didn’t last a lifetime. If you want a history lesson on the destructive power of a hurricane take a look at NOAA/NWS Photo Archive. 

Below is the “Final” Tropical Discussion For the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Lets hope that 2006 brings a calmer Atlantic. Big kudo’s to the staff of the National Hurricane Center, for all there hard work in keeping the public informed.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 062031
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND IS NOW LIMITED TO JUST A FEW SKINNY BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. AS SUCH… ZETA NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE… WHICH MEANS THAT BOTH IT AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON HAVE ENDED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/6. ZETA HAS MADE A JOG BACK TO THE NORTHWEST… BUT THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS BEEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 06 KT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ZETA IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS… AND TURN NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS AS THE REMNANT LOW COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. BY 72 HOURS… THE SKELETAL REMAINS OF ZETA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY… ZETA SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION…ZETA RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY…OR ACE… SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO… UNTIL THE 2006 SEASON BEGINS… UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE COMEBACK… THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR 2005… FINALLY.

FORECASTER STEWART