There are two named storms in the Atlantic Basin and another area that will probably be named in the not-to-distant future. Hurricane Danielle is churning northward and should pass east of the island of Bermuda this weekend. Winds at the time of this writing are sustained at 110 MPH. Tropical Storm Earl is heading west in the Central North Atlantic and its track is going to have to be watched very closely. Winds are clocked at 60 MPH. Earl will most likely come much closer to the U.S. but how close is the question. Right now, forecast models have it moving between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S. That could change so please stay tuned. As I stated last week, I would make sure that you have all of your hurricane preparedness plans in place, including the supplies that you will need and your plans to evacuate. There is another area of disturbed weather further east in the Atlantic that could become a tropical storm this weekend. This may be the storm that can come all the way west to the U.S. mainland but it is way too soon to make that call… Meanwhile, as far as our local weather is concerned, there really aren’t any weather related concerns this weekend EXCEPT if you are going to the beach. There will be a high risk for rip tides due to the increasing swells coming in from Hurricane Danielle. Temperatures will be seasonal with moderate levels of humidity. Things heat up a bit as we head towards Monday. I’ll have an udpate on Sunday morning.

Today (Sunday), rain moved in ahead of schedule for some of us here in Hampton Roads. I awoke to the sound of distant thunder. Rainfall in my neighborhood totaled around three quarters of an inch so far this morning. Forecasters yesterday thought that we would not see rain until later today but the moisture arrived here (Va. Beach) before dawn. With all the cloudiness and the onshore flow, temperatures should not be too warm today. However, humidity levels will be high making it uncomfortable. A significant low pressure system is going to cause a good soaking for parts of the Northeast bringing possibly five or more inches of rain to some areas up that way.  The cold front should move through later tonight bringing slightly cooler weather here tomorrow. The chance of rain will still exist tomorrow but is should be less of a chance than today. On Tuesday, we may see another shower/storm. Now for the tropics… TD 6 has formed in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean and is moving to the W-NW. Forecasters believe that eventually this will become a hurricane. Its name will be Danielle. Now, this is the area where the “big storms” are born, so forecasters will be watching this very closely. And, because the area is so far south, it is possible that it could track westward all the way across the North Atlantic Ocean. However, computer models are now indicating that the storm will re-curve to the northeast before it becomes a threat to the East or Gulf Coast of the U.S. That is a long way into the future and weather patterns at that time may not be exactly what the models are predicting right now. There are many questions that have to be answered. How significant will the shear be? (Southwesterly winds are expected to increase out ahead of the storm possibly impacting its structure and development potential) Will there be a weakness in the large Bermuda/Azores high pressure system that could allow the storm to move harmlessly out to sea. What will the weather map look like here in the Eastern U.S.  when the storm gets into the Western Atlantic? In the meantime, if I were you, I would get out your hurricane tracking map and track this system as it moves across the Atlantic and I would make sure that my emergency plan is up-to-date. That’s it for now. Have a great day!

A very slow moving cold front brought showers and thunderstorms to Hampton Roads on Wednesday and Thursday. My Virginia Beach neighborhood picked up 1.20 inches of rain on Wednesday and on Thursday, I picked up 0.40 inches. The lightning was quite intense in some areas on Wednesday and I’ve seen a report that one home was struck by lightning, which resulted in a structural fire. The front is currently moving southward through South Carolina and it should begin to stall out.  Temperatures shouldn’t be too bad on Friday, but due to more sunshine, it should be warmer than Thursday. The forecast high for ORF on Friday is 89 degrees. Humidity levels should come down just a bit. The weekend looks okay but there may be shower later on Sunday as humidity levels rise again. Showers and storms seem possible early next week. The tropics are quiet for now, but forecasters believe that this is going to change very soon. The Cape Verde season is expected to begin in earnest, which could bring a long tracked tropical cyclone across the North Atlantic Ocean. Currently, an area of disturbed weather is gathering south of the Cape Verde Islands. This system may be Tropical Storm Danielle in a few days. We’ll see if that pans out. The tropics have been quiet thus far this season due to dry air at the mid-layers, unfavorable upper-level winds, dust from the Sahara Desert, among other things. Forecasters do believe that some of these inhibiting factors are lessening with time so as I said, things should begin to pick up soon. Stay tuned! I will have an update on Saturday.

Deep blue skies, a nice breeze off the ocean, puffy white clouds, temperatures at seasonal levels, who could ask for more? The only problem was the rip tides and the rougher than normal surf caused by the persistent onshore flow.  The high pressure area that was responsibile for the nice weekend and the onshore flow is expected to move out into the Atlantic slowly losing its influence on our weather. Winds will gradually turn more southerly and then possibly southwesterly bringing increasing heat and higher humidity values into Hampton Roads. Forecasters don’t think that we will see temperatures approaching the upper 90’s. Low 90’s seem more likely, especially in the inland spots. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase as we head towards the middle of the week. The tropics remain quiet but forecasters are keeping an eye on the remants of TD-5 which will be moving back into the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC gives it a 20% chance of developing back into a tropical cyclone.

The high pressure area over New England that pushed a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic States is responsible for possibly bringing one of the best weekends of the entire summer to Hampton Roads this weekend. A light onshore flow will keep temperatures tolerable and humidity levels won’t be as high as they have been of late. One thing to keep in mind and be cautious about… With water temperatures at their warmest of the year,  a breeze off the water can bring in higher humidity values. However, the air is originating off of the cooler New England waters and for the most part, the air should not pick up enough water vapor to cause too many problems. Some patchy morning fog and even an isolated light shower cannot be ruled out but overall I think that you will enjoy this weekend. One downside is that the rip current threat will be high on Saturday due to the persistent onshore flow. It should lessen a bit on Sunday. The high pressure moves further off of the coast by Monday and Tuesday so this could bring an increased chance of an isolated thunderstorm… What is going on with the tropics? Despite it being the middle of August, there isn’t even a suspicious area that forecasters are watching. What happened to this hurricane season, which was supposed to be so active? Forecasters have their theories, but right now, we have to wonder whether it will pick up quickly and still be an active season. Nobody knows what will happen, but let’s enjoy the peaceful conditions while they last. I’ll have an update on Sunday.