Archive for October, 2015

THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS CAUSING HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, TIDAL FLOODING, AND A FLOOD WATCH TO BE ISSUED… HURRICANE JOAQUIN’S FORECAST TRACK KEEPS IT OFFSHORE

My post last night focused on the hurricane and the computer model performance. I wanted to talk about the weather conditions today caused by a quasi-stationary frontal system that lies just off the coast. Due to the combination of a high pressure area over Eastern Canada and the frontal system off the coast, winds are going to be quite strong today out of the NE. This will cause tidal flooding today through Saturday. The occasional heavy rain may cause highway and street flooding and there is also a possibility of small stream and river flooding, too. A Flood Watch has been issued by the NWS and there is also a Coastal Flood Warning in effect. If you have to travel today, please be careful. There may be a break in the rainfall at times today, but overall it is going to be a very wet and stormy day. South Carolina seems to be in the bulls eye of the heaviest rainfall from this system. This could be a historic event for them… Hurricane Joaquin is still a category 4 storm and it appears that it is undergoing an eye-wall replacement cycle. This can cause some temporary weakening. It is moving very slowly and it is expected to start heading north and then northeast. As it moves out to sea well off the coast, its effects here should be minimal and it will slowly weaken as it encounters cooler water and wind shear. You should still monitor the track of the storm as there could still be a shift in the track. I plan to post again over the weekend. Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

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SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR FORECAST TRACK FOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN… MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, POSSIBLY CAUSING FLOODING IN SOME AREAS

As the headline states, some of the computer models have been changing the forecast track of Hurricane Joaquin with nearly every model run the past several days. What is amazing to me is how the European model has been consistently taking this powerful hurricane harmlessly out to sea, while the other models had it moving northwestward towards the East Coast. The European model was the only computer model that accurately predicted Hurricane Sandy’s unprecedented track into N.J. in October, 2012. Now, it appears that this model may have been onto something that the other computer models missed. It’s very complicated why the models differ in their forecast solutions, but it seems that the European model did not buy into the developing upper-level low over the southeastern states pulling the storm towards the East Coast. The hurricane at the time of this writing is a category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 MPH. It is still moving very slowly southwestward but it should soon make the turn to the north and then northeast, if the forecast is indeed correct. It is causing very rough conditions in the Bahamas…. The stalling frontal system off our coast is causing the rain and breezy conditions. Heavy rain is possible on Friday with flooding possible in some locations. A little over 2 inches of rain has fallen since yesterday in my neighborhood. The weather over the weekend is highly dependent on the exact track of the hurricane. Please do not let your guard down, but based on the latest guidance out of the NHC, the storm should stay far enough offshore to spare our area the worst of the conditions. However, there is still a chance that the storm could move closer to our area and cause more impacts here. So, please monitor the situation closely. I plan to have a full update on Saturday.

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