SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR FORECAST TRACK FOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN… MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, POSSIBLY CAUSING FLOODING IN SOME AREAS

As the headline states, some of the computer models have been changing the forecast track of Hurricane Joaquin with nearly every model run the past several days. What is amazing to me is how the European model has been consistently taking this powerful hurricane harmlessly out to sea, while the other models had it moving northwestward towards the East Coast. The European model was the only computer model that accurately predicted Hurricane Sandy’s unprecedented track into N.J. in October, 2012. Now, it appears that this model may have been onto something that the other computer models missed. It’s very complicated why the models differ in their forecast solutions, but it seems that the European model did not buy into the developing upper-level low over the southeastern states pulling the storm towards the East Coast. The hurricane at the time of this writing is a category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 MPH. It is still moving very slowly southwestward but it should soon make the turn to the north and then northeast, if the forecast is indeed correct. It is causing very rough conditions in the Bahamas…. The stalling frontal system off our coast is causing the rain and breezy conditions. Heavy rain is possible on Friday with flooding possible in some locations. A little over 2 inches of rain has fallen since yesterday in my neighborhood. The weather over the weekend is highly dependent on the exact track of the hurricane. Please do not let your guard down, but based on the latest guidance out of the NHC, the storm should stay far enough offshore to spare our area the worst of the conditions. However, there is still a chance that the storm could move closer to our area and cause more impacts here. So, please monitor the situation closely. I plan to have a full update on Saturday.

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