Archive for October, 2015

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO MAKE OUR SATURDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY… TRICK-OR-TREATERS SHOULDN’T HAVE ANY PROBLEMS FROM THE WEATHER THIS EVENING… CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE WET WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST… MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WET… BETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK

The weather today will be nearly perfect for most outdoor activities. For the folks going out this evening trick-or-treating, conditions should be nice but it will be a bit chilly. Clouds will be on the increase on Sunday as a low pressure/frontal system approaches from the southwest. Although there could be a shower or two later Sunday, meteorologists are saying that the steadiest rain is more likely late Sunday night into Monday. Indications are that we could see quite a bit of rain if the forecast verifies. Note that Hampton Roads has not had widespread significant rain since October 3rd. The rain should end early on Tuesday and clearing should follow. The mid to late week period looks like it will be mild and dry. That’s it for now. Enjoy your Halloween and have a wonderful weekend!

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IT’S BEEN THREE WEEKS SINCE MEASURABLE RAIN HAS FALLEN IN VIRGINIA BEACH…. HURRICANE PATRICIA, THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN RECORDED HISTORY, WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO… MORE FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN TEXAS AND SOME SURROUNDING AREAS

Saturday, October 3rd, was the last time my neighborhood has seen measurable rainfall. As it looks right now, aside from a possibility of a light shower or sprinkle on Sunday, we most likely will not see any significant rainfall until Wednesday. This weekend will be pleasant for the most part with near seasonal temperatures. A cold front will be approaching later on Sunday and this may bring a shower to some spots. However, forecasters don’t think Hampton Roads will see much, if any, rainfall. The further north you are, the better the rain chances, but even up north, there probably will not be much rain. Our winds will swing around to the north and northeast on Monday behind the cold front. As moisture arrives from low pressure to the southwest, clouds are expected to increase as we go through mid-week. Rain is a possibility on Wednesday, but there is some uncertainty as to the timing, areal coverage, and the amount of rain that is expected. Moisture from Hurricane Patricia may also reach this part of the country… As the headline states, Hurricane Patricia reached an intensity yesterday that made it the strongest hurricane in recorded history in both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Basins. At one point, maximum sustained winds reached 200 MPH!!! The barometric pressure fell to 880 millibars, which is also a record. The cyclone is now moving through central Mexico, and is weakening rapidly due to the rugged terrain and being away from it’s moisture source. However, some forecasters believe that the cyclone’s structure may survive and make a brief comeback once it reaches the Western Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast states that it will become (or combine with) a non-tropical low pressure area near the Texas coast.  Either way, it will add moisture and energy to the wet weather system now over Texas over the next few days. That’s it for now. Enjoy the great fall weather this weekend. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

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AN EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT WILL BRING US VERY COOL WEATHER EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK… A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER OUR REGION… NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

On Friday, a cold front moved through the region producing an area of light rain. Less than a tenth of an inch of rain fell in most areas. Northwesterly winds flowing around a massive high pressure area over the center of the North American continent will usher in the coldest air of the season so far. Scattered frost is possible in areas away from the water tonight and again on Sunday night. The development of frost depends on the wind speeds. If the winds are calm or very light, frost will be likely as the cold air has a chance to settle near the ground. The high pressure area will slowly move eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region. We’ll see a gradual moderating of the temperatures back to more seasonal levels as we go through the mid-week period. No significant rain is expected for several days but a sprinkle or light shower is possible on a couple of occasions this upcoming week. Overall, the dry weather pattern is expected to persist for many days to come… As far as the tropics are concerned, the NHC is watching a disturbed area moving slowly west-northwest over the Yucatan Peninsula. When it makes it to the Bay of Campeche, it does have a short window of time to develop into a tropical cyclone. There are no other areas of concern at this time…. Enjoy the great fall weather! It seems like it wasn’t long ago, I had my air conditioner on.  This morning, I turned my heat on for the first time this season. That’s it for now. Have a great weekend!

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CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE SKIES HERE IN HAMPTON ROADS ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION… AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED… MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY… ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ON MONDAY

The weather pattern finally quieted down this past week here in SE VA allowing for sunny skies and lighter winds. Tides went back to normal and we all enjoyed some pleasant fall weather. A weak cold front moved through overnight bringing some showers and storms to areas north and west of our region. Hampton Roads did not receive any significant rainfall overnight (Friday night) for the most part. An upper-level disturbance moving eastward from the Ohio Valley may bring us a shower today, but it shouldn’t be a big deal. Clouds are expected to dominate the skies. The combination of cloud cover and a N-NE wind will make Saturday much cooler than it was on Friday, when we saw temperatures in the 80’s. Low pressure is expected to develop along or just off the South Carolina coast tonight and Sunday, but as of now, it is not expected to bring us any rainfall. On Sunday, we should see more sunshine. On Monday, another cold front may bring us a shower, but again, nothing major is expected as of now. If anything changes in the forecast, I will post an update on Sunday or Monday…. This is the time of year when we could have extended periods of beautiful weather with pleasant temperatures and humidity levels. We’re in the transitional time of year when we see much less thunderstorm activity like we do in the summer and we are not yet at the time of year when large extra-tropical storms sweep across the nation bringing significant rain and snow. However, every so often, major storms can occur during the month of October. And, of course, it is still hurricane season, so every so many years we are impacted by a tropical cyclone or its remnants during the month of October. Speaking of the tropics, there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.  That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

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A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CAUSING STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH TIDAL FLOODING… HURRICANE JOAQUIN HEADS NORTHEASTWARD OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC… PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK… ALSO, MY OPINION ON HURRICANE FORECASTING IN THE FUTURE

Winds have picked up again out of the northeast bringing tidal flooding problems that coastal residents have become accustomed to here in SE VA of late. High pressure to the north and low pressure developing in the vicinity of South Carolina are causing the strong winds. In addition, large swells from Hurricane Joaquin are adding to the problems along the coast. Before I talk about our future weather, I wanted to comment on the heavy rainfall that we saw late last week. You may have heard meteorologists say that the rain was not from the hurricane. Well, I have found out from a very reliable source that had it not been for Hurricane Joaquin, we would most likely not have had the heavy rain totals that we received. (I picked up 4.80 inches in my backyard from this weather event). The hurricane acted as a pump of tropical moisture that fed into the frontal system that stalled off our coast. If you looked at a satellite photograph on Friday, you would have seen the connection between the stream of tropical moisture heading up from the south and the hurricane. Due to an upper-level low pressure system that developed to our southwest, the stream of moisture pivoted south and west towards South Carolina. They’ve been getting slammed with very heavy rain this weekend… As far as rainfall today, forecasters don’t expect too much here in Hampton Roads. There’ll just be scattered showers moving from east to west off the Atlantic. Some areas may see a heavy downpour but it will not be like this past Friday… Now I wanted to comment on the forecast model performance. As I mentioned in one of my previous posts, most models did poorly with Joaquin. The only model that predicted a turn out to sea was the European model, but since it was the only one, forecasters did not trust it despite it being the only model that predicted Hurricane Sandy’s making a left turn to the west causing it to make landfall in NJ back in 2012…. My suggestion is this and I know it may be controversial. I think from now on, the NHC should hold off with a forecast track when they are truly uncertain where a storm is going due to computer model disagreement. I think that the situation that occurred with Joaquin is going to cause people to ignore the warnings the next time we are threatened with a serious hurricane. I realize that folks need to have time to prepare, but showing a forecast track of a hurricane that most likely will not come true is not serving the best interests of the public. The NHC just needs to be let people know that they should be prepared, but as of now, they cannot determine where the storm will eventually go due to model disagreement. Once the storm begins moving and models come into better agreement, there should be plenty of time for evacuation plans to be executed, if needed. Back to our current weather… The winds should finally begin to subside on Monday or Monday night and improving weather is expected by mid-week. That’s something to look forward to! Thanks for reading and have a great day!

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