Archive for September, 2015

HAMPTON ROADS DEALS WITH TIDAL FLOODING, ROUGH SURF, BEACH EROSION, AND OCCASIONAL RAIN AS THIS STUBBORN WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES… THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK… ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK

We’ve been dealing with the persistent northeasterly winds all week, and those winds will continue through this weekend. The pressure gradient between a strong high pressure area over Eastern Canada and a weak low pressure area along the southeast coast is causing the winds to blow from the ocean continuously. This, combined with astronomical influences, is basically piling up the water in our waterways causing the above normal tides. Tidal flooding will be an issue throughout the weekend. Rainfall hasn’t been as heavy as was initially expected here in Hampton Roads as there are no significant forcing mechanisms in place. However, parts of NE NC have received heavy rainfall over the past day or two. In my backyard, about 0.40 has fallen so far which is much needed rain for my neighborhood. That’s the most rain we’ve had since August! How much more rain will we get? Current indications are that areas to our south may get more significant rain. We may get some more rain but it will be intermittent and light for the most part. Some moderate rain is possible at times especially today (Saturday). The computer models differ on when this pattern will finally break down. There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for early next week. There may be additional rain chances next week. It’s a shame that this weather pattern occurred for the weekend of the Neptune Festival. However, looking back at this past summer, there were plenty of beautiful weekends (and weekdays as well)  for the tourists to enjoy with no real weather related issues. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great weekend, despite the weather!

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PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS… RAIN CHANCES GO UP AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK… TIDAL FLOODING CONERNS ALSO RISE… AUTUMN ARRIVES IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

The combination of high pressure to our north and low pressure off the Southeast coast has caused a persistent northeasterly wind that has caused some minor tidal flooding in some flood prone spots here in Hampton Roads. Unfortunately, these winds will continue for the next few days, and it is possible that additional tidal flooding issues may occur as we head towards the weekend. The high pressure area is expected to strengthen a bit and the low pressure area that has been to our south may begin moving northward. Currently, the low pressure area is drifting southwest and as a result, we should see less of a chance of rain showers today (Wednesday) and again on Thursday. Speaking of rain, although we’ve had a decent chance of rain over the past few days, it’s only been small isolated showers, mist, and drizzle drifting inland from the ocean. There really haven’t been any significant amounts here locally. In my backyard, less than 0.20 has fallen so far this week. That may change as we head towards the weekend if the forecast verifies and the low pressure area does make progress northward. We may not see an end to this weather pattern until early next week! Computer models differ on the exact timing, coverage, intensity, and placement of the rainfall later this week. They also differ regarding exactly when this weather pattern will come to an end. When the wind blows off the water and there is a lot of cloud cover, nighttime temperatures do not drop that much. Temperatures have been fairly consistent over the past few days staying in the 70’s for the most part. That’s about where they should be at this time of year…. As I stated in earlier posts, my neighborhood could use the rain, so I am hopeful we get some decent rainfall from this system later this week… In the Tropical Atlantic, Tropical Storm Ida is still out there, but it is weak and only moving very slowly. It poses no threat to any land area right now. That’s if for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

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THE WEATHER FORECAST CHANGES FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK… HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST… ONE THING IS CERTAIN, COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES TODAY

I wanted to post an update to let you know that some changes were made to the forecast for this upcoming week. Yesterday, I mentioned that we might have a chance of rain during the mid-week period. It now appears that the mid-week period will be dry, but again, as I stated yesterday, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for this week. There are several factors at play that are causing the forecast difficulties. The first is a cold front that is moving through the state of Virginia today (Sunday). Once this front passes, our winds will shift to the N-NE, which will bring down slightly cooler air into the region this afternoon. It may become a bit breezy at times, especially along the coast. If you are going out on a boat today, be mindful of that. The front will slow down as it moves to our south and east. Then, a weak area of low pressure is expected to develop along the front. That, combined with a moistening onshore flow may cause a few showers or even some drizzle early Monday. We may see additional chances of showers during the day on Monday and that could last into Tuesday. At this time, heavy rain is not expected. Since my neighborhood is parched due to us getting missed by the showers and storms in late August and early September, I’m hoping for some much needed moisture. The other issue is a low pressure system that will be located well off the Southeast coast. Computer models yesterday indicated that there was a chance that this low could retrograde (move westward) towards the coast. While that is still possible, it seems now that it will not affect our region. There may be another chance of a shower towards the end of the week. That’s it for now. Thank you for reading and have a great day!

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THE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND… A NORTHERLY WIND WILL BRING IN COOLER WEATHER ON SUNDAY…THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK…

The weather should be great this weekend, which is good news for folks attending the Oceana Air Show and other activities across Hampton Roads. Saturday will be the warmer day as a northerly breeze is expected to develop on Sunday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system is slowly developing off the southeast coast. This low pressure area is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for possible tropical cyclone development. Right now, that chance is on the low side, but either way a storm system is expected to move very slowly northeastward for the next couple of days. Upper-level winds early next week may actually bring that low pressure area closer to the East Coast next week, but that is not certain at this time.  If that happens, rain chances will go up beginning Wednesday. If not, then we will just see a slight chance of showers in parts of the area…. Speaking of rain, the area of Virginia Beach that I live in has been repeatedly missed by the showers and storms that moved through SE VA over the past several weeks. In my backyard, less than two tenths of an inch of rain have fallen this month so far. Rainfall in August was well below normal so lawns that are not watered in my area are brown and crunchy. I know this is hard to believe for the folks that have had heavy rain last week and the week before…. In the tropical Atlantic, there are two systems in the Central Atlantic. TD 9 and Tropical Storm Ida are of no major concern for the East Coast in the near future. I will let you know if that changes. So, enjoy the last official weekend of summer. Autumn begins at 4:21 AM EDT on September 23rd. Thank you for reading and have a great weekend!

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A NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER… SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AND IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS… THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND

First, a look back at the past week…. It was a very warm and humid week and some spots in Hampton Roads did receive some decent rainfall. Not my neighborhood. Only 0.15 of an inch fell this week! This weekend, we’re getting a break from the heat as the clockwise flow around building high pressure to our north is creating a northeasterly flow here in SE VA and NE NC. This weather pattern will result in a cooler couple of days along with lots of clouds and even a chance of a shower. It will be a hit and miss type of thing and some areas may remain dry. Some sunshine will be possible at times. If you are going to the beach, be advised that there will be a moderate risk of rip currents. In addition, some “nuisance” tidal flooding is possible in the normally flood prone areas. The northeasterly flow will gradually slacken as we head through the weekend. This should result in a lessening chance of showers so by the time we get to Monday (Labor Day) conditions should be dry for the most part. A return to a warmer and more humid pattern is expected early next week as our winds are expected start coming from the S-SW…. Regarding the tropics, Tropical Storm Fred is still out there but this storm will not impact the U.S. Fred is expected to eventually turn to the north and northeast and dissipate. However, a disturbance in the Eastern North Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands may be the next tropical cyclone. This could be one to watch but we’ll see. Unusually strong upper-level winds have been very hostile to any storm moving across the Atlantic Ocean this hurricane season. Will that change? Only time will tell but we will soon be running out of time for the Cape Verde Season. The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season is September 10th…. So, that’s it for now. It may not be the best weather for a Labor Day Weekend here in Hampton Roads, but it won’t be that bad either.  Have a great weekend!

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