Archive for May, 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BRING US A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER-LIKE WEEKEND… RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER MONDAY

We’ll have another fantastic weekend although this weekend will be warmer than last weekend. A south to southeast breeze will cause it to be a little cooler along the southeast facing coastal areas. Rain chances will remain low this weekend as the high pressure area over the Western Atlantic Ocean will still be in control of our weather. Some cumulus cloud development is expected each afternoon, but there aren’t any real triggers for precipitation despite elevated humidity levels. Rain chances will increase later on Monday as the high pressure area moves further offshore and a frontal system slowly approaches the region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday, which is good news since most of the region hasn’t had significant rain in several days. Note that only 1.50 inches of rain fell in my backyard during the month of May, which is way below normal for the month. Parts of the area did see some isolated showers and storms this past week. I drove through some heavy rain on Thursday in Northern Virginia Beach along Shore Drive. However, it hasn’t rained in my Virginia Beach neighborhood since May 21st. The latest update from the National Weather Service in Wakefield suggests that the highest chances of rain will be north and west of our area on Monday and Tuesday. However, our region should receive some rain. There is even the possibility of a coastal low pressure area affecting us as the front is expected to stall nearby. That could potentially bring additional chances of rain to our area on Tuesday. Temperatures should trend downward next week… Hurricane season begins in the Atlantic Basin on Monday, June 1st. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center is that we will have a below normal season, with fewer storms expected to develop. You’ve probably heard this before, but it only takes one storm to cause devastation in any given area, so you must be prepared. Hurricane Andrew devastated parts of South Florida in August 1992, and that was a below normal season. So, make sure you have a plan and the necessary supplies should a tropical cyclone threaten our part of the country. The flooding in the Southern Plains has been incredible and it’s amazing that some of those same areas that have been affected by the severe flooding were in a severe drought just over a year ago. Sometimes, it’s feast or famine. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

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THE GREAT WEATHER CONTINUES AND THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND

The timing couldn’t be better. The weather this weekend here in Hampton Roads will be nearly perfect for all outdoor activities. The only complaint might be from folks entering the water as dew points will be on the low side. This will make the air feel cooler when you get out of the water. (Read my Weather Fact “What is the Dew Point and Why is it so Important?”). High pressure off the East Coast will not move very much over the next few days. This will keep us dry for the most part through mid-week. Temperature and humidity levels will slowly increase as southerly winds on the western side of the high pressure area transport warmer and more humid air into our region. As is typical in a pattern like this, there will be an increasing chance of a shower or thunderstorm later in the week due to the heating of the day and atmospheric disturbances moving through… The south-central portion of the U.S. will continue to see the wet weather pattern that has been resulting in flooding issues along with severe weather… No weather related worries here in Hampton Roads for a few days, so enjoy your Memorial Day Weekend. Make sure you take time to remember the sacrifices that our service men and women made for this great country of ours. Thank you for reading and have a great day!

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AFTER A VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY, COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

The remnants of Tropical Storm Ana are moving well out to sea. Approximately a third of an inch of rain fell in my neighborhood from Ana on Monday. The bulk of the heavier rain moved to our south and east. The Outer Banks of NC had much more rain from Ana. This pre-season tropical cyclone does not mean that we will have a very active hurricane season. History shows that there is no connection with early season tropical cyclone development and the actual number of storms that develop throughout the upcoming hurricane season… Thunder woke me up this morning as showers and thunderstorms developed in parts of the Southside Hampton Roads and NE NC. Another third of an inch of rain fell from these early morning storms… Tuesday is shaping up to be a very warm and humid day here in Hampton Roads. A southwesterly flow out ahead of a cold front is pumping the heat and humidity into our region. We could even break the 90 degree mark in some areas today. But the heat will be short-lived as cooler weather will move into the region behind the front along with lower humidity levels. The approaching front may trigger showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday and severe weather is a possibility, so make sure you monitor the local media and the National Weather Service forecasts and statements. The weather Wednesday through Friday should be very nice with cool temperatures and lower humidity levels. The weekend weather is questionable right now. It seems that we are going to enter a period of unsettled weather with occasional chances of showers and storms. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

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TROPICAL STORM ANA MOVES VERY SLOWLY TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE… ANA’S REMNANTS MAY BRING SOME RAIN ON MONDAY… WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER

Ana has transitioned from a sub-tropical storm to a tropical storm and its sustained winds are now up to 60 MPH. The storm has become more of a warm-core system with convection and thunderstorms forming around the center of circulation. The storm is expected to continue its very slow movement towards the Carolina coast. The only effects that we will see this weekend are just a slight chance of a shower. Those chances seem higher over our inland areas. As of this writing, there is a Dense Fog Advisory in effect across Hampton Roads. Dew points have come up due to the persistent onshore flow. The fog will dissipate later this morning. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ana will most likely weaken a bit as it moves over cooler shelf water closer to the coast. Keep in mind that it is only May, and so the ocean does not have the heat content that it has later in the season. However, the combination of the very warm Gulf Stream and nearly ideal atmospheric conditions have allowed the system to maintain itself and strengthen slightly overnight. A trough of low pressure to our west is expected to advance eastward on Monday and the southwesterly flow ahead of it should pick up Ana and move her remnants northeastward towards SE VA on Monday. How much rain we actually get here locally from Ana’s remnants is questionable at this time. I’ve seen some conflicting forecasts. Some forecast models take most of the heavier rainfall out to sea. What about strong winds? At this time, weather forecasters are not expecting any widespread wind issues. However, whenever remnants of a tropical cyclone approach the area, isolated storms containing strong winds are possible depending on atmospheric conditions. An approaching cold front should bring us another chance of showers/storms on Tuesday. It is expected to be warm and quite humid out ahead of the cold front. Behind the cold front, it will cool down a bit and the humidity will be lower. That’s it for now. For all the moms out there, Happy Mother’s Day!

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THE PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS… A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY… METEOROLOGISTS ARE GOING TO BE WATCHING THE AREA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MEANDER IN THAT AREA

The weather this time of year can be so beautiful. Humidity levels can be still low enough that we can enjoy temperatures in the 80’s. That will be the case today (Tuesday). A very slow moving backdoor cold front will be approaching the area on Wednesday. This front will eventually wash out as it moves through the southern Mid-Atlantic States, but there will be enough of a northeast breeze behind the front on Thursday to lower our temperatures in the afternoon to the 70’s instead of the 80’s as we are seeing today. There may be a shower in some spots but widespread rain is not expected with this weak frontal passage. The highest chance of rain will be to our north… Meanwhile, a low pressure system is expected to develop off the Southeast Coast on Wednesday. Exactly where this system eventually goes is not certain at this time. Some models have it drifting northward and then they turn it westward into the GA or SC coast. It is even possible that the low pressure system attains tropical or sub-tropical storm characteristics, but that is not a very high probability at this time. Either way, it is expected to kick up the surf, especially in the coastal waters off NC and points south. As far as the storm’s impact on our weather, meteorologists do not believe at this time that we will see any direct impacts from it. However, keep in mind that this forecast can change if the low pressure area moves further north. So, stay tuned… Hurricane season begins on June 1st in the North Atlantic Basin, so it’s not that far off… Thanks for reading and have a great day!

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