Archive for July, 2014

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TO HAMPTON ROADS ON MONDAY… SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING WEDNESDAY

What was once Hurricane Arthur is now an extra-tropical cyclone in the Canadian Maritimes. For the most part, Hampton Roads was spared the worst of the storm. Winds in my neighborhood weren’t that bad. Rainfall only totaled 0.80 in my backyard. Many folks are probably wondering why the storm did not bring worse conditions since it was classified as a category 2 storm. In the past, Hurricanes of similar intensity that passed by to our southeast over the Outer Banks have caused more damage to the Hampton Roads cities. There are several factors that determine how severe conditions will be in any given area when a hurricane comes through the region. Every storm has different characteristics and the structure of  each storm does vary somewhat. Some storms are larger than others. Hurricanes that develop from the tropical waves that travel westward across the Atlantic sometimes are larger storms. Arthur did not develop from one of those tropical waves deep in the tropics. Some storms have strong winds that extend very far from the center of the storm. Some storms have heavier rainfall than others in most or all quadrants. For example, back in 2003. Hurricane Isabel  had a very large area of very strong winds far out ahead of the storm. This was due to a steep pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the hurricane approaching from the southeast. Wind damage was much more widespread with Isabel. Some folks lost power for several days and even weeks. Rainfall totals were higher with Isabel. In 1999. Hurricane Floyd caused massive stream and river flooding in parts of NC and VA, but it also had weaker winds than expected in Hampton Roads… Now to address the current and future weather. The relatively cool and dry air mass that moved into Hampton Roads this weekend in Arthur’s aftermath is now getting set to move off the coast. A south to southwesterly flow will transport heat and humidity back into our region starting Monday as the high pressure area takes up residence off the southeast coast. Tuesday may be a very warm day with high temperatures possibly reaching the mid to upper 90’s! An approaching cold front may trigger showers and thunderstorms beginning on Wednesday and possibly lasting into Friday. The front is expected to wash out so no real relief from the humidity is expected right away from the front. We’ll see if cooler and drier air will be able to make it this far south and east next week. So, enjoy the pleasant weather today (Sunday) while it lasts! Thanks for reading and have a great day.

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HURRICANE ARTHUR THREATENS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA… THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE.. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT FOR HAMPTON ROADS

The evacuations have been ordered for parts of Coastal North Carolina as Hurricane Arthur moves north-northeastward. It’s a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 MPH as of 8:00 AM this morning. The overall forecast track has remained the same taking the worst conditions east of the Hampton Roads cities. However, I recommend that you monitor the local media and NWS/NHC updates for any possible changes in the track and intensity of this hurricane. Also, if you live in an area that normally floods from higher than normal tides, you should take the necessary precautions. Right now, the forecast is that Hampton Roads will receive some rain and gusty winds later tonight and early Friday morning, but as I said, the worst conditions should be to our south and east. The Outer Banks (i.e. Cape Hatteras) will bear the brunt of this storm. There is  a cold front approaching from the west. The combination of tropical moisture being drawn northward by Arthur and this front may trigger a shower or storm today. However, I don’t see much activity on radar this morning. Daytime heating may change that later today. Sometimes, when tropical cyclones approach from the south, bands of heavy rain/storms develop far away from the actual cyclone. We’ll see if that happens today. Speaking of tropical moisture, the dew point this morning is 75 degrees, which is very uncomfortable. This normally happens when a tropical cyclone approaches the region. On Friday, Arthur’s forward motion should accelerate, so conditions will improve throughout the day. The weather this weekend should be great with high pressure building back into the region. That’s it for now. Have a great holiday weekend!

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A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST… THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST… IN THE MEANTIME, HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD IN HAMPTON ROADS

 Tropical Depression One has formed off the east coast of Florida. This should be the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Arthur is expected to be named sometime today. At the current time, it is drifting around but it is expected to turn more to the north later today and tonight. Although there is still much uncertainty regarding the forecast track and intensity of this system, the models are starting to come together as to the path of the storm, which should eventually take it northeastward just off the Carolina Coastline. The track has shifted slightly to the right taking the worst conditions just offshore the Outer Banks. However, a westward shift in the track could mean more rain and wind for the coastal areas. Intensity forecasts are less dependable so the actual strength of the storm may be different from what is currently being forecasted by the NHC. What about Hampton Roads? We’re going to be caught between an approaching cold front and the tropical cyclone. The current thinking is that the increase in tropical moisture should result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms later Thursday and Friday. Right now, it is not certain how we will be impacted by the storm, but the timing could not be worse as it is expected to make it’s closest approach on Independence Day… In the meantime, heat and humidity will be increasing here in Hampton Roads. A shower or thunderstorm are possible but odds are that most areas will stay dry. On Thursday, rain chances increase as the cold front approaches from the west and tropical moisture increases from the tropical system moving northeastward along the coast. That’s it for now. Have a great day!

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