Archive for August, 2013

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS… A COLD FRONT MAY BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY

I was on the road traveling from DC to Charlottesville and then home to Virginia Beach yesterday (Saturday), so I was not here when the storms hit. As I was driving down I-64 yesterday afternoon, I could see in the distance the tops of the huge thunderstorms as they headed out over the ocean. My rain gauge recorded a little over 1.5 inches of rain. I noticed several branches along the roadway while traveling through the peninsula so the winds must have been quite strong as these storms moved through that area. Today, we may see another chance of showers and storms as the nearly stationary front lingers over the area. It’s also very humid and when dew points are in the low to mid 70’s, any shower or storm could dump very heavy rainfall. The unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue through mid-week. This does not mean that it is going to rain everywhere each day or most of the time in any area. However, it means that we will have a chance of a shower or storm through Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and evening. Some storms could be strong to severe. A cold front is forecast to approach the region later in the week, and we should see lower temperatures by Thursday if the forecast holds.

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WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESUME… RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND

The weather pattern over the next few days is very typical for August. High pressure offshore will be close enough to keep rain chances on the low side on Thursday. However, with the increased humidity, it would not take much for a shower or thunderstorm to develop. Chances of rain are only around 20%. As we head towards the weekend, a very slow moving cold front will increase the chances of showers and storms, especially to our west. The precipitation potential for the next several days shows much higher rainfall potential for areas just to our west. Locally heavy rain is possible in some areas. As has been the case several times this year, it is very hard for weather forecasters to pinpoint what areas will see the heaviest rain. I wonder if someday computer models will be sophisticated enough to predict what area will get the storms and the areas that will not. The front, which is now well to our northwest, is expected to stall nearby over the weekend keeping our weather on the unsettled side… The tropics (Atlantic Basin) remain on the quiet side. You have to wonder whether the earlier predictions of an active season will come to fruition. I heard a report that Colorado State University has scaled back their predicted number of storms. Things could change quickly so we cannot drop our guard.

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HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO HAMTPON ROADS… THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES BY MID-WEEK

The weather the past couple of days has been delightful considering that it is early August. Typically, humidity levels are much higher and temperatures can be in the 90s. The air mass that brought us the break in the summer humidity is getting ready to move offshore making way for higher humidity. Along with the higher humidity will come an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms, although right now, the coverage isn’t expected to be that extensive on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the chances go up as a disturbance swings through the area. Right now, the highest chances that I’ve seen for Hampton Roads is 40%. In a pattern like this, it is VERY difficult to predict what the coverage of rainfall will be and exactly what area will receive the showers and storms. Based on what I’ve seen, areas to our north and west will have the best chance of rain over the next few days. Further to the west in the center of the nation, very heavy rain is possible. Areas from Kansas eastward to Kentucky and possibly West Virginia may be impacted. I was away this past weekend, but I noticed that over a half inch of rain had fallen while I was away. …There are no tropical cyclones right now in the Atlantic Basin, but keep in mind that we are entering the time of year when tropical activity normally begins ramping up.

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