Archive for July, 2013

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS… THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN IS ON THURSDAY

I was looking at a map that shows how much precipitation has fallen and it is clear that the last two weeks have been very dry in my Virginia Beach neighborhood. However, just to my north and west, it was much wetter. At Norfolk International Airport, over 8 inches fell this month. Here’s what is strange. I also recorded over 8 inches of rain in my backyard this month, but nearly all of it fell in the first half of the month. Aside from a brief shower last evening, no significant rain has fallen in my area since July 13th. Fortunately, the first half of the month was very wet…. As the front that triggered the showers and storms yesterday slowly dissipates nearby, we may see another chance of a shower or storm today (Monday), but odds are it will remain dry in most places. Tuesday and Wednesday should be rain free for most of us but by Thursday, another frontal system may bring us an increased chance of showers and storms… In the Atlantic Basin, the remnants of former Tropical Storm Dorian, which are located north of Puerto Rico, are looking rather impressive over the past 24 hours. However, the National Hurricane Center only gives it a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the near term. We will soon be entering the period when storms should have more success traversing this part of the Atlantic as conditions will most likely be more favorable.

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A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH A TROUGH BRINGS US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY

With a nearly stationary front to our north and a trough nearby, we should see more cloudiness and an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow (Monday and Tuesday). The showers and storms may not occur everywhere but some areas may see heavy rainfall. On Sunday, very heavy rain fell over the peninsula. Reports of over 4 inches were reported. Most of the Southside remained dry. This week doesn’t look to be as hot as last week but it will still be on the humid side. There may be additional opportunities for showers and storms later in the week. The tropical Atlantic remains quiet for now.

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THE HEAT CONTINUES BUT MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT US ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY

At this time of year, cold fronts sometimes stall out before reaching us and this seems to be the case with the front that is moving towards the Mid-Atlantic States this weekend. A few days ago, computer models were predicting that the front would make it to our region. Showers and thunderstorms were expected to be numerous on Sunday. Now, that doesn’t seem to be the case. The front is expected to stall north of us and then return northward before dissipating early next week. What does that mean for us? Well, it means that we will not see the cooler and drier air behind the front come sweeping into Hampton Roads. However, even though the rain may not be as widespread as originally expected, the front should move close enough to create enough instability to cause some showers and thunderstorms in some areas on Sunday and especially Monday. It should be mentioned that it is possible that not everyone will see rain on Sunday. This pattern is very typical for July. The tropical Atantic is quiet for the most part today.

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HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING US A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER… HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK

A sprawling high pressure system is building into the Mid-Atlantic states and this should bring us a period of tranquil weather, but it will be very humid. Dew points are above 70 degrees which is very uncomfortable. Weather systems have been moving east to west which is quite unusual. This is due to the flow around the upper-level ridge of high pressure. Yesterday (Saturday), another inch of rain fell during the morning in my neighborhood. A band of rain moved from southeast to northwest bringing a brief period of heavy rain to some parts of Hampton Roads. This has been a very wet month. Note that on average, July is the wettest month of the year for our region. Indications are that precipitation chances will be on the low side over the next few days. However, when humidity levels are this high, an isolated shower or thunderstorm can pop up with just the slightest trigger. We should see warmer temperatures as we head through the upcoming week. The tropical Atlantic is quiet for now.

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RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND BUT SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE… WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND A HEATWAVE IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK

During the period Wednesday through Friday (July 10-12), my Virginia Beach neighborhood received around 4 inches of rain! A very slow moving frontal boundary, an upper-level trough, and a very moist flow combined to bring the heavy rainfall. The frontal boundary is expected to move westward and dissipate during the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure is expected to build in from the Western Atlantic over the weekend. At the time of this writing, there is a line of showers moving northward towards Hampton Roads so if it holds together, we may see some rain this morning in some spots. Conditions should improve later today. However, in a pattern like this, there will be a continued chance of an isolated shower or storm. The heat returns early next week. What about the tropics? Well, Tropical Storm Chantal weakened and later dissipated due to unfavorable winds and interaction with land. This was expected so no surprise there. However, its remants are lurking off the Southeast Coast and the NHC gives a 20% chance of development in the short term. The rest of the tropics are quiet for now in the Atlantic basin.

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