AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS

This past week, we picked up about two inches of rain in my neighborhood as a very slow moving cold front moved through the region. Just like the previous week, this was a system that produced very little if any, severe weather. The rain was very heavy in some locations causing localized flooding. The front that caused this rainfall moved off the coast and a disorganized low pressure system formed offshore. Due to ridging to the north over New England, the low has drifted to the south and is actually expected to retrograde to the west. As of this writing, there are two surface low centers, one off the S.C. coast and the other offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. The computer models differ in forecast solutions. Some have a basically dry forecast for the weekend, while others have it wet here, especially on Sunday and Monday. The official forecast from the NWS seems to take a middle ground approach to the forecast. This truly is a very challenging forecast. My thinking is that today (Saturday) it should remain dry. Sunday’s weather will depend on what the system offshore does. The forecast calls for a 60% chance of showers on Sunday through Monday. This is a very low confidence forecast.  Winds will be onshore which will keep it on the cool side this weekend. That’s it for now. Have a great day!

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