Archive for May, 2012

BERYL WEAKENS OVER LAND BUT IT IS DUMPING A LOT OF RAIN IN AN AREA THAT COULD USE IT… MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID HERE IN HAMPTON ROADS

On Sunday, Tropical Storm Beryl moved westward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and it strengthened into a 70 MPH storm. If you saw the spiraling system on radar late Sunday, you could see that the center was quite wide. Since the storm started out as a sub-tropical system, it never was able to obtain the classic eye wall with a small and tight center. Even so, for a May storm, it was quite a formidable system. The storm is slowing down now and will eventually begin heading to the northeast. Before it does, it will have dumped huge amounts of drought-busting rains over Northeastern Florida and Southern Georgia. This area has been in a severe to exceptional drought so Beryl is actually a welcome system for some areas. And, as I said yesterday, too much rain in too short of time can be problematic, but hopefully, it begins moving soon before flooding becomes too much of an issue. The next question is what, if any, impacts will the remnants have here in Hampton Roads? Well, forecasters are saying now that most of the heaviest rainfall will pass just south and east of our region. However, a slight change in that track could bring the heavy rainfall into our region, so stay tuned. Even if the remnants do pass south of us, heavy rain is still possible due to a cold front from the northwest interacting with the tropical moisture in place. The chance of rain increases Tuesday evening into Wednesday. I also wanted to mention that it is possible that the storm regains tropical storm strength when it moves over the ocean. That probably wouldn’t make much of a difference for us but we’ll have to watch this closely for the flooding potential. Backing up to Memorial Day, it wil be a very warm and humid day with just a very slight chance of a shower or storm. The cold front that will be moving through later in the week is expected to stall to our south. We are now in the time of year that cold fronts sometimes have trouble moving south and east.  Well, that’s it for now. Please remember to take a moment to remember those who have sacrificed their lives for this great nation. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

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SUB-TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY BECOME PURELY TROPICAL BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL… WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND… RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON TUESDAY

Forecasters are now saying that Sub-tropical Storm Beryl may become a Tropical Storm before it makes landfall along the Southeast Coast. (Check out my Weather Fact on Sub-tropical Storms). It still has cold-core characteristics around the center which is why it is classified as a Sub-tropical storm. Maximum sustained winds are around 50 MPH and it continues to move W-SW. Rainfall in the Southeast may be quite heavy but some areas need the rain desperately. Of course, too much rain in a short period of time may cause flooding in some localities.  A cold front and a trough coming out of the Western states is expected to eventually pick up whatever is left of Beryl and move the remnants to the northeast towards our part of the country. This scenario may bring us heavy rainfall by mid-week. That is not certain as the track can change based on the placement and strength of the high pressure ridge. The remainder of the holiday weekend looks okay as the deepest moisture associated with Beryl should remain well south of our area. However, a shower/thunderstorm cannot be ruled this out this weekend as some moisture from Beryl’s outer bands may affect our region. For those of you going to the beach, keep in mind that rip currents are still an issue. I’ll have an update on Monday. Have a great day.

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THE SECOND PRE-SEASON TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN… THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND STARTS OUT WITH FANTASTIC SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS… WILL THAT HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND?

Sub-tropical Storm Beryl has formed off the Carolina Coast and is now moving W-SW. Maximum sustained winds are around 45 MPH at the time of this writing. This storm is not expected to directly affect the Hampton Roads weather this holiday weekend. However, rip currents will be an issue. Hurricane season begins this coming Friday and we’re already on the “B” storm. Does this mean that the season will be very busy? Nobody knows for sure. Beryl will continue to head away from us as it heads southwestward along the Southeast Coast. This might actually be good news for areas of Georgia, South Carolina, and Northern Florida if they do get rainfall from this system. The drought in this part of the country is classified as exceptional in some areas. Will we here in Hampton Roads eventually be affected by Beryl? It’s hard to say. Later next week, a cold front may pick up whatever is left of the storm and bring it northeast towards our part of the country. It’s too early to tell whether we will see any rain from Beryl but we probably will receive rainfall from the cold front on Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Memorial Day weekend should be nice here in Hampton Roads with plenty of sunshine and light winds. Temperatures will be slowly warming each day. There may be a shower/thunderstorm in some spots on Sunday and Monday as sea-breezes along the coast interact with the prevailing winds. Forecasters say that the coverage of the showers shouldn’t be too extensive if it occurs at all. I’ll have an update on Sunday. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OFF THE S.C. COASTLINE… A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE KEEPS OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

It’s not even hurricane season yet, but we have our first tropical cyclone of the season. A small circulation has developed off the coast of S.C. and is now moving west-southwest. (The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1st). At the time of this writing, sustained winds are 50 MPH. The forecast track has it making a u-turn and basically heading northeast paralleling the Carolina coast and then heading out to sea. Our weather here in Hampton Roads is now under the influence of an offshore low pressure system. It’s not an especially strong system. The onshore flow around this system is bringing in low clouds and some occasional drizzle. Some light showers are possible later on. As a trough approaches from the west, there will be a chance of showers/thunderstorms over the next few days. It’s really a difficult forecast with lots of uncertainty as to timing and amount of precipitation that willoccur. With all the moisture around, clouds will dominate the skies over the next few days, but some breaks of sun are possible. Temperatures will trend upwards as we head towards mid-week as our winds swing around to a more southerly direction. Impacts from the tropical storm are expected to be minimal to none as what’s left of the storm passes to our east. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

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AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS

This past week, we picked up about two inches of rain in my neighborhood as a very slow moving cold front moved through the region. Just like the previous week, this was a system that produced very little if any, severe weather. The rain was very heavy in some locations causing localized flooding. The front that caused this rainfall moved off the coast and a disorganized low pressure system formed offshore. Due to ridging to the north over New England, the low has drifted to the south and is actually expected to retrograde to the west. As of this writing, there are two surface low centers, one off the S.C. coast and the other offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. The computer models differ in forecast solutions. Some have a basically dry forecast for the weekend, while others have it wet here, especially on Sunday and Monday. The official forecast from the NWS seems to take a middle ground approach to the forecast. This truly is a very challenging forecast. My thinking is that today (Saturday) it should remain dry. Sunday’s weather will depend on what the system offshore does. The forecast calls for a 60% chance of showers on Sunday through Monday. This is a very low confidence forecast.  Winds will be onshore which will keep it on the cool side this weekend. That’s it for now. Have a great day!

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