Archive for August, 2011

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY ON SUNDAY, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FURTHER NORTH… THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS TYPICAL FOR MID-AUGUST… RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND

Well, it happened again! My “desert” community here in Va Beach has been missed again by an area of rain that moved through Norfolk. We did get a little rain (about a tenth of an inch) but that is not going to help much with the incredible dryness here in my parched neighborhood. The last time that it rained more than a tenth of an inch was on July 25th, and that was only about a third of an inch of rain. Although forecasters are still predicting showers and thunderstorms today due to an approaching cold front, I think that most of the significant rainfall will be north of here where it is already occurring this morning. That is where the best forcing, dynamics, lift, etc will be. Some areas may receive a heavy downpour, but I think it will be isolated to scattered in nature. Severe weather is a possibility, too. Let’s hope that the Great Dismal Swamp receives some rain to help with that wildfire. Some believe that they need six or more inches of rain to douse the fire. Once the front moves offshore late tonight, our rain chances will decrease but there is still a chance of a shower/storm on Monday. The week should be dry for the most part but rain chances will most likely increase by next weekend as we may see a similar set up to what we have now.

The are no major concerns in the tropical Atlantic but we are heading into what normally is the meat of the season when the tropical wave train usually develops long tracked tropical cyclones. So, we should see an uptick to the activity over the next week or so.

That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

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HAMPTON ROADS HAS ITS BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IN A LONG TIME ON SUNDAY… THE QUESTION IS… WILL IT RAIN WHERE IT IS REALLY NEEDED SUCH AS WHERE THE WILDFIRE CONTINUES TO BURN?… AND MY NEIGHBORHOOD WHICH IS PARCHED?

As the headline states, forecasters believe that Hampton Roads may see some significant rainfall on Sunday, but there is no certainty at this time as to how much rain will fall and whether it will be widespread. Some “unlucky” areas of SE VA and NE NC have not received much rainfall the past
several weeks and as result, have become extremely parched. My neighborhood is exceptionally dry as we’ve been missed repeatedly by the downpours that have drenched some areas of our region. Of course, the big concern is whether it will rain over the wildfire in the Great Dismal Swamp. Earlier this week, the smoke from that fire choked parts of Hampton Roads with heavy smoke that actually obscured the sun at times. The winds shifted and pushed the smoke to the south and west over NC. Today (Saturday), the smoke is expected to be a problem in parts VA that are downwind from the fire. A low pressure system will be passing by to our north dragging a front through our region which should be enough of a trigger to produce showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Sunday night. Severe weather is also a possibility, although forecasters don’t think that it will be widespread. It’s impossible to predict what areas will see the rain and how much will fall.

The tropical Atlantic has a few areas of concern but I don’t think that anything significant is going to develop over the next day or so.

That’s it for now. Have a great day and thanks for reading.

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THE HEAT IS BACK AND MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY… THERE IS A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT AGAIN, MANY AREAS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE RAIN… THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE TYPICAL FOR EARLY AUGUST

As I mentioned repeatedly in my posts, my Virginia Beach neighborhood has repeatedly been missed by the heavy downpours that have drenched most of the South Side Hampton Roads this summer. To put this into perspective, Norfolk International Airport (ORF) has recorded over 27 inches of rain so far this year and the total in my backard is a little over 20 inches. That’s a 7 inch difference! Even NAS Oceana has received more rainfall than my neighborhood this summer. On Saturday, it looked and felt like it was going to pour at any time and all that fell was a trace. Some areas to our south saw significant rainfall on Saturday as energy moved across North Carolina producing a rather large area of showers and storms. There is a chance of a shower/thunderstorm again Sunday afternoon, but they will probably be few and far between. Note that it’s difficult to forecast the coverage and intensity of storms in a pattern like this so who knows, maybe there will be more storms than the forecasters are predicting. Dew points will probably be slightly lower today, but temperatures will be higher due to more sunshine and a more westerly wind flow. Monday will be another hot one but we may see a slight break by mid-week. With another weak frontal system expected to move through, we may see a thunderstorm or two Tuesday or Wednesday.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Emily have reorganized into a depression off the Florida coast but this system should move out to sea. There are no other areas of concern right now. Soon, we will be getting into what normally is the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season, so you should be prepared should a storm approach our region.

That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

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HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN AND SO DOES THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS… THE HEAT RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY

Wasn’t Friday a nice break from the intense heat and high humidity that we’ve been enduring this summer? There was a nice breeze off the water and temperatures were tolerable for most folks. Well, the break is over as we return to high humidity levels and increasing temperatures. A warm front will be moving slowly through the region this weekend and a combination of high humidity, the aforementioned warm front and disturbances that are expected to move through Hampton Roads will give us a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Now, it probably will not rain everywhere (unfortunately for some areas like mine), but there will be a chance any time Saturday and Sunday of a shower and thunderstorm. Wherever the rain occurs, it could be quite heavy. My Virginia Beach neighborhood has been missed repeatedly this summer from the heaviest downpours so I’m hoping our luck changes this weekend. Temperatures are expected to rise back to the low to mid 90’s on Sunday and Monday.

Tropical Storm Emily succumbed to the hilly terrain of Hispaniola and also it was impacted by less than favorable atmospheric conditions. It may make a comeback near the Bahamas but it should move out to sea. There aren’t any other areas of concern in the tropical Atlantic.

That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

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