Archive for September, 2010

THE EARLY FALL HEAT WAVE IS OVER… A MAJOR RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED IN SOME PARTS OF THE EASTERN STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY… HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WE RECEIVE FROM THIS SYSTEM?

A stalling cold front will bring us some cloudiness on Sunday, but all in all, it shouldn’t be a bad day. It will be cooler than it was on Saturday. The front will begin to turn back northward on Monday. Meanwhile, a large surge of moisture will be feeding in from the Gulf of Mexico and then eventually the Atlantic Ocean as a low pressure system forms to our west. This low will lift north into the Ohio Valley. Some areas of N.C. and VA. are expected to receive significant rainfall over the next few days. The question for us is will we get in on any of this moisture. The discussion out of the Wakefield NWS office was not available this morning, but I did read it last night. There seemed to be a lot of uncertainty as to how much rainfall we would receive. Western VA will most likely get the lion’s share of rainfall from this system. Up-sloping winds will enhance the rainfall there. The drought has been quite persistent out that way so this is good news. However, the drought has also been severe just west of Hampton Roads and I am hoping that this area receives some beneficial rainfall over the next couple of days. It appears that a cold front that will swing through Hampton Roads later Tuesday and Wednesday should touch off some showers/storms here but we’ll have to see what happens. It’s been two weeks since we’ve seen rain here locally so things are getting quite dry, especially since it has been so warm of late. What about the tropics? Some forecasters believe that tropical trouble may be brewing by mid-week in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. The computer models have been quite persistent in showing some type of low pressure (whether it be tropical in nature or not) developing and moving northward towards Florida. Forecasters will be keep their eyes on this area this upcoming week for sure.

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COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND… RAIN CHANCES GO UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT FORECASTERS AREN’T CERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE WILL RECEIVE

We have one more unseasonably warm day before a cold front moves through. Then, the question will be how much rain will we receive from a slow moving low pressure system. Another question will be whether moisture from what once was Tropical Storm Matthew can make it up to our part of the world. The weakened system is now moving into the southern Yucatan Peninsula and the remnants are expected to turn north into the Gulf of Mexico. Back to our weather… Although Fall arrived this week, Thursday and Friday were definitely not Fall-like. Record breaking temperatures on Friday and increased humidity levels made it a very uncomfortable day for most of us. Today (Saturday) probably will not be as warm as Friday, but it will still be on the warm side. Sunday should feature more clouds and a wind switch to a more northerly component will make it a much cooler day. As moisture from a low pressure system out to our south and west slowly moves eastward, rain chances will go up on Monday. Most of the significant rainfall will most likely occur in the inland areas of VA and NC, where they desperately need the rain. Just to our west, a severe drought exists and hopefully this system will bring some relief. Will moisture from Matthew make it up this way to enhance the rainfall. Forecasters aren’t sure at this time, but the possibility does exist. By the way, it will be two weeks this Sunday since we’ve seen rain in Hampton Roads. I’ll have an update on Sunday.

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THE FINAL WEEKEND OF THE SUMMER IS PERFECT FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES… HURRICANE IGOR IS DOWNGRADED TO A CATEGORY ONE AS IT CLOSES IN ON BERMUDA… NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK

The last official weekend of the summer is perfect for doing just about anything outdoors. Temperatures are seasonal and will remain that way through mid-week. Warmer weather is expected later in the week. No rain is expected this week and that is not good news. Some parts of Eastern Virginia are now experiencing a severe drought and it will only get worse as time goes on. In Virginia Beach, Hurricane Earl brought around an inch of rain and this city has seen more rain during August than other parts of Hampton Roads. That has kept Virginia Beach out of the drought area for now. However, as the dry weather continues, I expect Virginia Beach to be included in the drought area if we do not get rain in the upcoming weeks. For some of the farmers in Eastern Virginia, the growing season for their crops is over, so even if it does rain, it is too little too late. Right now, there is no sign of rain in the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, Hurricane Igor is approaching the island of Bermuda at the time of this writing. The storm has weakened to a category one which is good news for Bermuda. It also has sped up just a bit, which is also good news as this may lessen the duration of stormy conditions. Conditions will really go downhill today (Sunday). Another disturbed area in the Eastern North Atlantic is being watched for possible development over the next few days. Soon, we will be reaching the end of the Cape Verde season. Tropical cyclone develpment then becomes more probable in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. That’s it for now. Have a great day!

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HURRICANE IGOR CLOSES IN ON BERMUDA… DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN IN VIRGINIA AS FORECASTERS SEE NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE NEAR FUTURE

Hurricane Igor, which is now a category 2 storm, is slowly approaching the tiny island of Bermuda. Conditions there will slowly go downhill as we go through the weekend. By Sunday night, hurricane conditions are expected there, and stormy conditions are expected for an extended period of time. The current forecast track takes the center very close, if not right over the island. Since the hurricane has such a large windfield, stormy conditions are expected no matter what. What about the storm’s effects here in Hampton Roads? The main effect will be the large swells that are going to increase throughout the weekend. Another indirect effect of the storm passing well east of us will be to keep us dry. Yes, the subsidence that occurs well west of a hurricane normally gives us dry weather. That coupled with other factors are going to keep us on the dry side for several days. That is not good news for the parched areas of the Southern Mid-Atlantic states, including areas of western Hampton Roads and points north and west. The drought is only going to worsen. Since Virginia Beach had around an inch of rain from Hurricane Earl, the dryness isn’t as much of a problem here. However, as the dryness continues, I expect Virginia Beach to be in the same boat as the rest of Eastern Virginia by next week. Temperatures will be very comfortable this weekend and will only slowly increase as we head into the late week period. That’s it for now. I’ll have an update on Sunday.

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WARMER WEATHER MOVES INTO HAMPTON ROADS… HURRICANE IGOR WEAKENS A BIT BUT IS STILL A POWERFUL STORM… JULIA BECOMES A HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC

Anyone taking an off-season vacation here in Virginia Beach this week is going to enjoy summer-like weather without the high humidity. Lots of sunshine and temperatures in the 80’s will make for great beach days this week. Of course, folks venturing in the ocean will have to be mindful of the increasing rip tide threat as the swells from Hurricane Igor approach the east coast. More on Igor later… A cold front will pass through the area without much fanfare and due to down sloping winds, temperatures will not be that cool behind the front. The weather here in the east is quite benign which is typical for this time of year. I don’t see any major changes for the remainder of the week. Cooler weather is possible this weekend. Meanwhile, Hurricane Igor is churning west-northwestward and it is expected to begin it’s turn to the northwest which may result in stormy conditions for the tiny island of Bermuda. The worst case scenario would be if the hurricane moves just west of the island. This track would put the island in the right front quadrant of the hurricane. The maximum sustained winds have dropped from 150 MPH to 135 MPH as of this morning. Julia has become a hurricane in the Eastern North Atlantic. This storm is not expected to be a threat to any land area. Forecasters are watching another area of concern in the Caribbean.

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