Archive for June, 2010

FRIDAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY… THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN ON SATURDAY… STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY

High pressure will slowly move off the coast and as it does, a south to southwesterly flow will develop on Saturday bringing in muggy weather just in time for the weekend. Meanwhile, an onshore flow on Friday will keep temperatures from rising too high, despite lots of sunshine. Although a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out on Saturday, I don’t think that many of us will see one here in Hampton Roads. The further west you are, the better the chance will be. However, on Sunday, the chances go up somewhat as conditions will be more favorable for convection to develop, especially in the afternoon and evening. We really could use the rain as we haven’t had much of it over the past few weeks. You have to keep in mind that the evaporation rate is extremely high this time of year due to the strength and duration of the sunlight. There will also be an area of rain/showers/thunderstorms moving just to our north over the weekend. Right now, I don’t think that this will affect us right here locally. A disturbance in the upper-atmosphere is triggering that area of rainfall. I’ll have an update on Saturday.

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A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT… A REFRESHINGLY COOL AIR MASS MOVES IN ON MONDAY… THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MOVE IN BY MID-WEEK

A cold front is moving rapidly towards Hampton Roads so this will be the last hot day for a while. Despite the cold front coming through at the ideal time to produce thunderstorms (late afternoon and evening) and decent humidity levels,  forecasters aren’t predicting a widespread outbreak of thunderstorms. This is due to a downsloping flow which normally inhibits storm developemt here in the southern Mid-Atlantic States region. That’s unfortunate as I was hoping for some rain today. Things are getting a bit dry again in my neighborhood. Monday will be much cooler with a northerly breeze. Temperatures may not break the 80 degree mark. By mid-week, the high moves offshore. This will produce a southerly return flow around the high. This flow in combination with an approaching weather system may cause some showers or thunderstorms during the mid-week period.

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COOLER, LESS HUMID WEATHER IS ON ITS WAY, BUT IT WON’T GET HERE UNTIL MONDAY… SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM

Saturday will be a lot like Friday… Hot and humid with just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. The southwest flow continues around a high pressure off the coast of the Southeastern states. There really isn’t any definitive mechanism to produce thunderstorms but with all the heat and humidity around, it really doesn’t take much to trigger a storm. On Sunday, I think will see a better chance of a thunderstorm as a cold front approaches the region. That front will move through Sunday night bringing in a nice, refreshing air mass for Monday. Temperatures and humidity levels will be lower on Monday. Another frontal system may bring us a shower or thunderstorm by the middle of the week.  I’ll have an update on Sunday.

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TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND… COOLER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY

The meteorological summer season has already begun and the weather will behave accordingly.  This season runs from June 1st through August 31st. This is the warmest 3 months of the year. Hurricane season also has begun on June 1st and forecasters are predicting a busy season. More on that later… The Bermuda High will has been firmly in place and will remain basically in the same position throughout the weekend. Cold fronts that are trying to move into the Mid-Atlantic region are not having any success as the high pressure area is just too strong. The cold fronts are dissipating to our north and west as we remain in the southwesterly flow around the high pressure off the coast. With the humidity levels on the high side, a shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The prime time for them to pop up is the late afternoon and evening. They should be isolated so most of us will not see rain. However, as I have stated numerous times, when you have high humidity, all you need is a trigger to touch off convection. The triggers are sometimes not picked up well by the computer models. Upper-level disturbances, sea breezes and other various boundaries can act as triggers. On Sunday, a cold front is expected to approach the region raising the chances of showers and thunderstorms late in the day or at night. Monday looks like it will be a cooler day assuming the front makes it through the region. I’ll have more on that in my Saturday morning post… Well, hurricane season is upon us but for Hampton Roads, we normally don’t see the effects of tropical cyclone activity until mid-August. However, we have been affected by storms in June and July, but that is rare. Anyway, there is nothing out there now to be concerned about. Although forecasters are predicting a busy season due to weaker and more favorable upper-level winds and warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), nobody really knows how it will be. We all have to be as prepared as possible. Remember, all you need is one big storm to hit our area and that can happen even if the season that isn’t active.  That’s it for now. I’ll have an update on Saturday.

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