Archive for November, 2009

A FAIRLY NICE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL START OUT OUR WEEK BUT A LARGE STORM MAY BRING US SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON THURSDAY

Well, as we try to burn off the calories that we put on during Thanksgiving, the weather should cooperate. Sunshine and seasonal temperatures will make for nice walking weather. Sunday will be a great day for putting up the Chirstmas lights or doing yardwork. The nice weather should last through early Wednesday and temperatures will trend downward on Tuesday after a cold front passes through the area. Then, attention will turn to a developing low pressure area near the Gulf of Mexico. This could be a very wet system as it moves northeastward. As it looks now, rain is expected to start late Wednesday. Now, that could change but the bottom line is that we expect rain to overspread the area by Thursday. And it could be a soaker of a storm so stay tuned. This is turning out to be one very wet year and it ain’t over yet. Is it the El Nino or are other factors involved? It’s probably a combination of both. Speaking of rain… When I got home yesterday, there was a little over a half inch of rain in my gauge from that cold front that moved through the region on Friday morning.

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AFTER A FAIRLY DECENT SUNDAY, RAIN SLOWLY SPREADS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY… LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST… THE WEATHER SHOULD IMPROVE ON TUESDAY BUT MAY BECOME UNSETTLED AGAIN BY THANKSGIVING

Early last week, the forecast for this weekend (11/21-22) ¬†was for a sunny Saturday and a rainy Sunday. The system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico moved slower than expected so we managed to salvage our Sunday. As I write this, the sky is a deep blue and it is shaping up to be a decent day. However, the clouds aren’t far away and will be creeping in later today and tonight from the south and southwest. The low will slowly move northeastward to a position off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Monday. The rain should be fairly light for the most part with the heaviest rain occurring near the Southeast Coastline. Winds should not be that much of an issue, but they will be increasing later Sunday night and on Monday. Tides may be a bit above normal but this event should not be that bad, especially if you compare it to the Nor’Ida storm earlier this month. The low pressure system will move away on Tuesday and we should have a decent day on Wednesday. Then, the models diverge on their solutions for Thanksgiving Day and beyond. Please monitor the weather forecast for Thanksgiving especially if you are traveling. A snowstorm is possible in parts of the nation this holiday weekend, and I think the areas to watch are the Great Lakes states and the Northeastern states. Out west, other troublesome areas are possible. The overall pattern is fairly active and due to various complicating factors, the models are not handling things that well. Temperatures this month have been mild for the most part but it seems that things may change once we get past the holiday weekend and we could see a trend to colder than normal conditions. Extended forecasts can be misleading but they can act as a guide to what the trends are.

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SATURDAY LOOKS GREAT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA KEEPS US DRY… A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS DESTINED TO BRING US SOME RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY

For those of you who still need to clean up storm debris from the nor’easter last week, Saturday looks like a great weather day to do outdoor work and clean-up. High pressure will maintain fair weather through early Sunday. After that, the effects of a low pressure system developing along the Gulf Coast will probably be felt here in Hampton Roads. At first, it will just be high clouds which should lower and thicken as we go through Sunday. Rain should begin to move northward towards our region Sunday evening and night. The rain will start off light. Monday will probably be a wet day with a stiff northeast breeze. Models differ on the actual track on the low and also it’s intensity so stay tuned. Check back in Sunday morning for an update and I’ll have an extended outlook for next week (including the forecast for Thanksgiving Day).

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THAT BRIGHT BALL IN THE SKY IS CALLED THE SUN AND WE SHOULD SEE IT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS… THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BATTERED THE COAST HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE

After a cloudy and drizzly Saturday, Sunday is shaping up to be a very nice day with sunny intervals and temperatures reaching the mid-60’s. The low pressure system that has battered the Mid-Atlantic Coastline is now well offshore and has weakened. After all that excitement I think that we could use some nice, quiet weather for a change and that is exactly what we will get. So, get out there and enjoy the sunshine. Take a walk or do some yard work if it’s not too muddy. The next significant weather system probably won’t affect our region until later this week and right now, it’s not looking impressive. However, that could change. In the past, I’ve commented repeatedly on our overall dryness and below normal precipitation. Well, Norfolk International Airport now as a surplus of more than 10 inches of rain for the year so far. So, I think that we can declare the official end to the drought in all of SE VA. On another subject… What will the winter be like and will we finally get some snow? We haven’t had a significant snowfall here in VA Beach since December of 2004. Needless to say, we are well overdue for snow.

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AS THE NOR’EASTER PULLS AWAY, WE’LL SEE SOME VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT… A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS EARLY THIS COMING WEEK

The nor’easter has subsided and all we have left is a little drizzle and some breezy conditions. The tides are coming down and the flooding should slowly recede. Flooding caused by the heavy rainfall should also improve but only very slowly. The storm was one for the record books with winds gusting to 75 MPH here in VA Beach and rainfall totalling around 15 inches in some spots. Damage reports were quite impressive. One notable item was the Lynnhaven Fishing pier getting damaged. Another amazing thing that shows the shear strength of the storm was the barge that broke away and is now sitting in the water just of the coast of Sandbridge. Tides were just below Hurricane Isabel’s levels. The storm was caused by a combination of a low pressure system spawned by a disturbance in the upper level winds and the tropical moisture from Hurricane Ida. Energy and moisture from the Gulf Stream also added to the storm’s fury. The low will slowly move southeastward out to sea over the weekend. My house lost two pieces of siding and I have a leak in my roof which cannot be fixed until the the rain/drizzle is gone. Fortunately, flooding is not normally a problem in my VA Beach neighborhood. I will have more on what to expect during the upcoming week in my Sunday morning post.

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