Archive for October, 2009

TUESDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY OF THIS WEEK… AN UNSETTLED AND RATHER COOL WEATHER PATTERN IS DEVELOPING WHICH COULD BRING HAMPTON ROADS A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL

Octobers can be quite tranquil, but they could also be active at times. The pattern that is setting up seems to be quite active and should result in some rather nasty weather for us here in Hampton Roads. As the headline states, Tuesday will most likely be the best weather day of the week. Moisture will be spreading into our region on Wednesday which should result in a cloudy day with an increase chance of rain. The further south you are, the better chance of rain there will be. There may actually be two systems that will affect the region. The second one will approach from the southwest later in the week. The timing of the rainfall will be quite problematic. Forecasters do believe that the southern part of the Wakefield (AKQ) forecast area will see up to an inch of rain when all is said and done later this week. Hampton Roads is part of the southern region. This same system may bring the first snowflakes of the season to the interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic states and the Northeastern states. Accumulating snow is possible up there in the higher elevations. Winds may also become an issue as we see an increased gradient between a high pressure area to our north and the approaching low pressure systems. So get ready some wet and cool weather and please be careful driving.

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A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEEK LIES AHEAD… TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF WARM-UPS… HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WE GET?

The weather map this Monday morning shows a stalled frontal boundary well to our south and a weak shortwave moving slowly eastward towards the Carolinas. A large high pressure is located in the Northeastern part of the nation. This is creating an easterly flow and even though the flow is off the ocean, the origin of the air is Canadian so it is still relatively dry. The air will moisten up somewhat as the shortwave moves to our south. However, most of the deep moisture is expected to slide well to our south. We may see a little rain or drizzle Monday night but not much QPF is expected across Hampton Roads. A look at the national radar this morning and you would think that we were going to receive a deluge tonight, but forecasters say that will not be the case. Anyway, we clear out later Tuesday and Wednesday should be a decent day. Then, we may have to deal with an overrunning situation on Thursday and Friday. This should produce lots of cloudiness and a fairly decent chance of rain. I’ll have another update on Tuesday.

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THE HEAT IS GONE AS WE HEAD INTO A TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER PATTERN…

The weather patterns in October can sometimes be quite benign. Some of the most precipitation-free patterns have occurred in October. The reason is that in October, thunderstorm frequency has decreased but the storms of the colder season have yet to begin. Also, drier air masses with origins in Canada usually encompass large areas of the country in October. The tropical air masses are surpressed further and further southward. Now, with all that said, it does not mean that there cannot be some weather excitement in October. Sometimes, there are significant low pressure areas that traverse the United States bringing heavy precipitation and some severe weather. The current weather pattern is very typical for October but there are some complexities that are causing the models to have some difficulties coming up with solutions. The front that moved through yesterday (Sat) has become stationary well to our southeast over the coastal waters off the Carolina coast. A wave of low pressure is expected to ride along this boundary but the models keep us dry for the most part. High pressure should bring us nice weather during the mid-week period but another system will be approaching which could bring some wet weather later in the week. The tropical Atlantic remains quiet as hurricane season winds down. Check back in on Monday for an update.

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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COOL US DOWN… HOW MUCH RAIN WILL WE SEE… WILL THE WARMTH RETURN?

The weather pattern over the last week or so has been quite benign over the Mid-Atlantic region. Although temperatures have been on a roller coaster ride, no major precipitation developed. Forecasters had thought that a low would bring us some rain but none occured. Now, we have another cold front getting ready to move through but again the rain shield has been diminishing as it moves eastward. The energy is mostly moving to our north. However, after the front moves through, some rain may fall. I doubt there will be much. The front won’t get very far as it will get hung up off the Carolina coastline. Since our winds will switch to the north after the frontal passage, our temperatures will trend downward. Sunday will not be as warm or humid. The forecast remains tricky for Monday as a weak area of low pressure may bring another opportunity for rain. How about those chilly temperatures out west? Denver was in the teens Saturday morning! I’ll have an update on Sunday.

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IT’S A BEAUTIFUL SUNDAY ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS… HOWEVER, THE WEATHER PATTERN IS AN ACTIVE ONE WHICH MAY BRING US SOME WET WEATHER THIS WEEK

October is a transitional month as the days grow shorter and the sunlight becomes less intense with each passing day. This causes cold air masses to slowly build across the tundra of Northern Canada and Siberia. As the difference in air masses increases in the northern hemisphere, the jet stream begins to intensify as it slowly shifts southward. Weather systems (lows and highs) become stronger as the weather pattern becomes more active.  The computer models are indeed forecasting a fairly strong low pressure system to develop over the center of our nation later in the week which could bring a good dose of wet weather to us here locally and maybe even some thunderstorms. Temperatures this week should be seasonal or slightly above, but a major change may come late in the extended period as a cold air mass plunges into the nation. The tropical Atlantic remains quiet although there is one area with some potential for development in the Central Atlantic.

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