Archive for October 25, 2009

THE WARM AIR IS OUT OF HERE… BUT WHAT LIES AHEAD?… THE MODELS JUST CAN’T AGREE ON THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK

It was so warm and humid last evening (Saturday) that I had to turn on my air conditioner… even thought I had the heat on earlier in the week. I went out to get the newspaper this morning and one can easily tell that a cold front moved through last night. The air had a very different feel to it. We didn’t receive that much rain in my neighborhood from the front that moved through. Most of the heaviest rain (and the energy/dynamics) passed well to our north. However, some isolated areas of NC did pick up a decent amount. I picked up about 0.20 in my backyard overnight. ORF received about the same amount. Well, the front is offshore now and normally after a frontal passage like this, the forecast would be sunny for the next several days. That is not exactly the case as the flow aloft is southwesterly which is not allowing the front to move to far away. A low pressure system is expected to develop off the coast which may bring some unsettled weather to our region on Tuesday. An overrunning event is possible. There is plenty of uncertainty in the forecast as the models just will not come to an agreement on how the weather systems will behave. And, even after this system departs during the mid-week period, another stronger system is expected to develop in the Gulf states which may bring another period of unsettled weather to our region during the late week period. Forecasters don’t believe that we will see any real cold weather this week and a warm-up is possible before that second system affects us later in the week. So, the bottom line is that the forecast is a very tricky one this week with no real cold air in sight.

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