Archive for September, 2009

AFTER A VERY WET WEEK, HAMPTON ROADS WILL SEE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR A WHILE… WILL THERE BE ANOTHER STORM LATER IN THE WEEK?

We’ve had one heck of a wet week.  In my backyard, close to 5 inches of rain fell last week! The low pressure area that initially affected us on Tuesday actually made a U-turn and returned on Thursday for a second visit to SE VA and NE NC. Today (Saturday) the low is much weaker and will be heading out to sea (finally). Our weather this weekend will feature bright blue skies for the most part with just some clouds at times. No precipitation is expected. Next week looks dry through mid-week (at least). I’ll have more details about the extended outlook in my Sunday morning post. As far as the tropics are concerned, Fred is weakening and there are a couple of areas that have to be watched. Could there be tropical mischief right off our coast by later next week? I’ll also have that possibility in my Sunday morning post.

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LABOR DAY IS GOING TO BE A WET ONE… AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAY GO THROUGH MID-WEEK

A low pressure developing alont the NC coastline is likely to bring quite a bit of rain to SE VA and NE NC. This system has a lot of tropical moisture available to it so rain amounts could be quite heavy in some areas. I noticed that the NHC has this system in their low probability of becoming a tropical cyclone.  It is a slow moving system so forecasters believe that there may still be some rain around on Tuesday. Exactly where the cut-off of precipitation will be is hard to pinpoint but the further SE that you are, the more rain you will probably receive. Will there be flash flooding? The NWS as of this writing has not issued a Flash Flood Watch as they feel that although heavy amounts of rain will occur over the area from Monday through Tuesday, it shouldn’t fall heavy enough to bring small streams and rivers out of their banks. My advice would be to be very watchful of the flooding potential and monitor the NWS for any warnings that could be issued. Later in the week our rain chances should diminish but not totally until we get towards the weekend.

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ENJOY SUNDAY AS MONDAY (LABOR DAY) MAY NOT BE THAT NICE… IT’S A TRICKY FORECAST FOR LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

As the headline states, forecasters have a very tricky forecast for Monday and Tuesday. This is the set up as of Sunday morning. A high pressure area is moving slowly off the New England coast. The stalled boundary over the Gulf Stream is starting to back westward a bit. At the same time, low pressure is expected to develop off the Carolina Coast. What does it all mean? Well, right now, forecasters don’t appear to know for sure. Your Sunday looks okay for the most part although clouds will be increasing late in the day, especially along the coastal regions of the Southern Mid-Atlantic coastline. On Monday, there could be showers along the coast with a better chance of rain over the Outer Banks. Now, if everything comes together, rain could spread further inland on Monday, but as I said before, forecasters aren’t sure about that. The models want to bring the rain further north and the forecasters think that they are too agressive with the northward and westward motion of the rain. Time will tell. Winds are going to increase a bit out of the NE, which will increase the rip current threat. So, enjoy your Sunday as Monday may not be that nice of a day. Actually, the weather may stay a bit unsettled during the mid-week period as the flow remains onshore. For now, the tropical Atlantic remains quiet, but we may have to watch for “home grown” development over the next several days. I’ll have an update on Monday morning.

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LABOR DAY WEEKEND STARTS OUT SUNNY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES… ON SUNDAY, CLOUDS MAY CREEP BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST, BUT THAT IS NOT CERTAIN

The overall pattern is quite benign with very weak pressure systems. You would think that would make for an easy forecast for this Labor Day weekend. Well, not exactly. Today (Saturday) should remain nice with plenty of sunshine, light winds, and seasonal temperatures. Humidity levels should keep things comfortable for most of us. Be careful if you are going in the ocean as there is still a moderate risk of rip currents. The forecast for Sunday and Monday is not that easy. The frontal system that caused the cloudy weather this past week is still out there over the Gulf Stream and there is a chance that it could retrograde back to the west bringing with it cloudiness and even a shower or two. Moisture to our south could also come up but there is nothing organzed at this point that would cause anything significant. If the high to our north wins out, the entire holiday weekend could be nice. We’ll see how things go. The tropical Atlantic is still too hostile to support tropical cyclone development. The combination of dry air, subsidence, wind shear, and slightly cooler ocean water temperatures in some areas is simply preventing tropical cyclones from developing. Erika fell victim to this hostile environment. There are two other clusters of showers in the Eastern Atlantic that will have to be watched as they move westward but we have plenty of time before anything could develop. I’ll have an update on Sunday morning.

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