Archive for September, 2009

FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY… A DRY, COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON TUESDAY

The complex weather system that moved through our region Saturday night only brought about a half inch of rain to my neighborhood. The forecast was for around an inch to fall. Although as I am writing this, there is one more broken line of showers to our west, I don’t think that we will add that much to our overall storm total. The air behind this system is not cool by any means. With enough sunshine, temperatures should reach near 80 today (Sunday) and may exceed 80 on Monday. A second cold front associated with a large, intense (for this time of year) low pressure system over the Great Lakes will move through on Tuesday dropping our temperatures significantly. This will set the stage for a cool, dry period with brisk northwesterly winds. The tropical Atlantic  remains void of any tropical cyclones. Conditions remain too hostile to allow for a cyclone to develop and move westward towards the United States.

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RAIN IS HEADING OUR WAY… IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, MODELS BRING COOL AIR INTO THE EASTERN STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

This past week was very summer-like until Friday, when a cool NE wind took over bringing cool, damp air off of the Atlantic. Some parts of SE VA saw some heavy rain Thursday night, but my neighborhood only picked up about a quarter of an inch of rain. The high pressure area to our northeast is moving slowly offshore and will eventually lose its grip on our weather. This will allow a complex frontal system to advance towards the east coast. Rain should slowly spread across the area late Saturday from the W-SW. Rain amounts from this system are forecasted to be over an inch in some areas by the time the system moves offshore on Sunday. Sunday afternoon may turn out to be quite nice as the system departs. A trough of low pressure is expected to develop in the Eastern states next week which should bring in cool air from the NW after a warm Monday. As it looks now, next week should be dry for the most part after the cold front comes through on Monday. The tropical Atlantic is showing some activity but the hostile conditions for tropical cyclone development continue. A tropical depression has formed in the Eastern Atlantic but odds are it will never amount to anything. Hurricane season will soon be winding down but Octobers can be active, especially in the Carribean Sea. I’ll have an update Sunday morning.

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PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HAMPTON ROADS AREA THIS WEEK… THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC STAYS UNUSUALLY QUIET FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR

I thought that forecasters might have a better idea as to what our weather was going to be like this upcoming week today (Sunday), but it seems that there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. Models keep the low pressure area to our southwest (with warm frontal features) to our west along with the deep moisture/rain. However, the models also want to develop a coastal trough or even a low pressure area along the Southeastern coastline early this week. If that happens, our weather could turn unsettled during the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe. The question is… Will that happen? Meanwhile, high pressure will remain to our northeast creating an easterly flow off the ocean. That alone could cause cloudiness and drizzle or light showers. The tropical Atlantic still remains hostile for tropical cyclone development. As of now, the “ghost” of Fred isn’t showing signs of regenerating and the other area of concern in the Central North Atlantic has lost much of its deep convection. Will the U.S. escape this hurricane season without a landfall of a hurricane? It’s still too early to know, but as each day passes by, we move slowly out of the peak of hurricane season, which occured on September 10th.

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ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR HAMPTON ROADS… THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK… WILL THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOME ACTIVE NEXT WEEK?

This past week wasn’t that sunny, but it really was a nice week. Temperatures were seasonal overall and conditions were good for most outdoor activities. There should be more sunshine this weekend along with a strengthening N-NE breeze on Saturday. High pressure moving southeastward from the Great Lakes region will bring a few very nice days to our area. As the high pressure area moves offshore early next week, a trough to our west may begin to impact our weather. That is the part of the forecast that is uncertain at this time. How much deep moisture will be able to move into our region next week? Does this sound familiar? It’s almost the same situation that occured last week. The winds will swing around to the east begining Sunday and these easterly winds will continue for several days.  At this time of year, that can result in some cloudiness moving in from the ocean. What about the tropics? Well, the remnant circulation of once powerful Hurricane Fred is still out there and has survived very hostile conditions for tropical cyclones. As of this morning, there has been a flare up of convection but time will tell if that means Fred is making a comeback. There is another area that has to be watched deep in the tropics in the Central North Atlantic. I’ll have an update on Sunday morning.

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THE GREAT WEATHER CONTINUES WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND… HOW LONG WILL IT LAST?… IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE MODELS CAN’T AGREE

The weather over the next few days (Sunday through Tuesday) should be uneventful with plenty of sunshine and a slow warming trend is expected. After that, the models diverge in their solutions. There is a very wet large weather system in the Southern Plains states that has to be watched. Will it eventually affect our weather here in Hampton Roads? Well, some models do have the moisture heading our way by Thursday. The GFS is one of them. Other models keep us dry through much of the upcoming week. By late in the week, high pressure will be re-establishing itself to our north creating a NE wind. Until then, I would just enjoy the nice weather. The tropics are quiet as Fred has dissipated.

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