Archive for August, 2009

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMES VERY ACTIVE… SUNSHINE DOMINATES OUR FORECAST FOR SUNDAY… TEMPERATURES CREEP UP A BIT THIS WEEK

Hurricane season got off to a very slow start, but now it appears that it wants to make up for lost time. By later this evening (Sunday), there may be three tropical cyclones on the map in the Atlantic Basin. We have ragged looking Ana, a large, very impressive looking Bill and a newly formed tropical depression that should impact the panhandle of Florida. Go to the TPC site http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for positions, intensity, and forecast tracks of each of these systems. The way it looks right now (and of course, things are going to change) Bill looks to be the one to watch. It is very large and conditions are expected be fairly good for strenghening as he chugs along deep in the tropical trade winds. It’s too early to speculate exactly where Bill will go, but folks along the East Coast need to pay attention to this system during the upcoming week. Our weather will feature lots of sunshine on Sunday, but as the week goes on the chances of thunderstorms should slowly increase. The chances of storms greatly depends on a trough out to our west. How close will that get and will be able to make much eastward progress given the strength of the Bermuda High. Temperatures will slowly inch up but forecasters right now are not predicting intense heat like we saw last week. Just some lower 90’s, which is typical for this time of year.

Leave a Comment

FLOODING PLAGUES PARTS OF HAMPTON ROADS THIS PAST WEEK… WHEN WILL THE WET WEATHER END?… TROPICAL STORM ANA DEVELOPS BUT ANOTHER CYCLONE MAY FORM RIGHT BEHIND ANA

It has been a very wet week for some localities in Hampton Roads. Wednesday was an especially wet day. Parts of Norfolk received close to 7 inches of rain! This caused flooding problems and also closed the Downtown Tunnel for several hours. I drove home in that storm and it was quite a commute. Lightning crashing all around me, rain falling so hard that my windshield wipers could barely keep up, and huge puddles on the road. Of course, my commute was nothing compared to those affected by the tunnel closure or the more severe flooding. The reason for all the wet weather is a stalled frontal boundary that is slowly moving off the coast and also dissipating. However, some computer models develop a low pressure near the coast later today, which could enhance the rain for some areas, especially over the Coastal Carolinas. Either way, forecasters expect improving conditions on Sunday and Monday. Approximately 1.50 inches fell in my backyard this past week, most of which fell on Friday. The tropics are becoming active as we have our first tropical storm of the season. Check the TPC site for the lastest forecast track for Ana. A larger system behind Ana may be a much more important storm but we’ll have to see how things play out. The current forecast track of Ana does take it towards the U.S., but it is way too early to tell. In most cases, forecast models are not dependable more than 5 days out.  I’ll have an update on Sunday.

Leave a Comment

THE HEAT IS ON… WILL WE BREAK A RECORD?… TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TRENDING DOWNWARD ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

Late yesterday, I was watching the cloud development while playing minature golf with my son. I was thinking that although rain was not really in the forecast for Saturday evening, the towering cumulonimbus clouds indicated otherwise. Sure enough, showers and storms started popping to our northwest, one of which became tornadic prompting a warning on the penninsula. A waterspout was photographed which looked quite impressive as the storm moved into the Chesapeake Bay. As the cluster of storms moved into Va. Beach, they weakend so while dumping nearly an inch of rain initially over the penninsula, lesser amounts fell further south and east on the Southside. Only a quarter of an inch fell in my backyard. But, the way I look at it, that is “bonus” rainfall since it was not predicted. What caused the rain? The combination of the warmer, more humid air moving in and a disturbance moving through the area. Now, what about the anticipated heat wave. Well, temperatures are expected to reach the mid-90’s on Sunday, the upper-90’s on Monday (with 100 possible in some spots). Tuesday will still be hot but models are now speeding up the next cold front that will put an end to the heat. The record for Monday at ORF is 99 so it is possible to tie or even break. We may get into a wetter pattern later in the week, but that is not certain at this time. The tropical Atlantic remains quiet for now.

Leave a Comment

THE HEAT IS ON… FORECASTERS ARE PREDICTING A THREE DAY HEAT WAVE

If you have yardwork to do this weekend, I would suggest that you do it on Saturday as Sunday will be the start of a heat wave that should last through Tuesday. Temperatures will be just slightly above seasonal norms on Saturday, but on Sunday, the temperature will be approaching the middle 90’s. Monday may be the hottest day as we could approach 100 in some inland spots. Chances of thunderstorms will be very low during this heatwave but there may be an isolated storm in spots. A cold front should bring relief by the middle of next week along with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. The tropical Atlantic remains quiet. We finally received significant rain in my neighborhood this past week. A little over an inch and a half fell which was very welcomed rainfall. Much more fell to our north and west. (What else is new?) I’ll have an update on Sunday.

Leave a Comment

TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THIS WEEK… THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES BY LATE WEEK

Well, it happened again. The line of showers and storms that moved through on Sunday only brought a trace of rain to my VA Beach neighborhood. This has happened repeatedly over the past couple of weeks. A gap developed in the rather solid line of precipitation associated with a short wave and this gap moved right over my area. Now, I’ll have to wait until later this week for the next chance of rain. It has become very dry and the grass that is not watered crunches when you walk on it. Trees are probably beginning to stress from the dryness. Those of you in Hampton Roads that have received heavy rainfall from the recent storms are wondering what I’m talking about. The reality is that my neighborhood has been missed by the recent storms and it is almost like we are in a mini-drought. What about the future? This week will be a typical summer-like week with moderate amounts of humidity and high temperatures ranging from the upper 80’s to the lower 90’s. The chance of showers and storms will increase as we go through the week, but the timing and coverage of the rain is far from certain at this point. The tropics remain quiet.

Leave a Comment