Archive for August, 2009

A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS… AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK

There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast over the next several days. The challenges are many but here’s what forecasters seem to know. Monday will be much cooler as a cold front moves through our area and then stalls off the coast. This will set up a north to northeast wind flow which will transport cooler air into our region. With the front stalling and a low pressure area developing somewhere off the Southeast coast, rain is expected to break out on Monday  but forecasters aren’t sure of the exact placement of that area of rain. Will it cover Hampton Roads or will it set up offshore? What about areas to our west and north further away from the front? Will they get the rain? No matter what happens with the first wave of low pressure, there may be additional opportunities for rain later in the week. Personally, I’m glad that we will finally be getting a break from the heat. It has been unrelenting lately. What about the tropics? Well, there is a very healthy looking disturbed area roughly 950 miles east of the Windward Islands that will have to be watched.

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DANNY REALLY WAS A NON-ISSUE FOR HAMPTON ROADS… A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRING US AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER NEXT WEEK

Danny just could not fight off the hostile environment that he was in. For the most part there was the shear from a trough moving eastward through the Eastern U.S. There were other systems in the Western Atlantic that made it nearly impossible for Danny to become a hurricane. At the time of this writing, he is just a depression and is starting to accelerate to the N-NE. Eastern New England will have to deal with the heavy rain associated with both Danny and the trough that is moving through. Danny could become a strong extra-tropical low pressure area (for this time of year) as it moves into the coastal waters of the Northeastern states. For us, Danny wasn’t really a factor. I picked up 0.40 inches of rain overnight and now, as I write this, the sun is out and the sky is a deep blue. A cold front will be approaching this weekend again raising the chances of showers and thunderstorms. The timing of this front is a little uncertain. As it looks now, Sunday afternoon and evening seem to be the most likely timeframe for us to see the rain. Then, the front is expected to stall nearby and we may be in for a period of unsettled weather next week. The exact details are far from certain. Temperatures will be trending downward on Monday. As far as the tropics go, there is an area of disturbed weather far out in the Atlantic, but it is too far to speculate about the eventual track or intensity of this potential system.

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TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAYS… FORECASTERS ARE WATCHING A DISTURBED AREA OF WEATHER NEAR PUERTO RICO

It seemed like every time thunderstorms hit Hampton Roads this summer, Norfolk or other areas to our north and west received the brunt of the storms receiving heavy rainfall while my VA Beach neighborhood barely received any rain.  Well, on Monday, things turned out quite different. While driving home late Monday afternoon in sunshine, I noticed that once I got to the Lynnhaven area, there were puddles. I saw the storms to my southeast while driving east on I-264. When I got home, I checked my rain gauge and sure enough, I saw that we received over three quarters of an inch of rain. Add that to the 1.50 we had over the weekend and we did pretty well here in Va Beach. The dissapating front that has brought this wet weather has moved further offshore so forecasters believe that there is less of a chance of rain today (Tuesday). However, a pop-up storm can occur this afternoon but they should be very isolated. The tropics are getting interesting again as there is a disturbance near Puerto Rico that bears watching. Some forecast models bring this system (92L) fairly close to this area. This movement is highly dependent on the positioning of the weather systems in the Eastern U.S. and the Western Atlantic. Normally, what is needed is a high off the NE coast. Even if the tropical system doesn’t affect us, a system from the west may bring us some rain over the weekend.

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HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS POUND HAMPTON ROADS ON SATURDAY… SLOWLY DISSIPATING FRONT LINGERS ALONG THE COAST… THIS WEEK SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN LAST WEEK

A rather solid line of showers and thunderstorms plowed through SE VA late on Saturday dumping heavy rain in many areas. I picked up about 1.50 inches in my backyard, but some areas received much more rain. Norfolk and some surrounding areas received over 3 inches of rain and this caused flooding for some localized areas. The slow moving frontal system that caused this rain is still around today but it it slowly weakening. Although there is still a chance of rain on Sunday, forecasters don’t believe the rain will be as widespread as it was on Saturday. However, there is still a potential for heavy rain for those spots that do receive the rain. NE NC has the best chance of rain on Sunday. Monday should be a little drier, but the trough over the east could still cause a shower or two. This is the same trough that pushed Hurricane Bill out to sea. Speaking of Bill, as of this writing, he is slowly weakening and is moving swiftly N-NE towards the coastal waters of Nova Scotia. Seas should slowly calm down here in VA Beach, but swimmers should not venture in the water today. The rest of the tropical Atlantic  looks quiet for now.

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HURRICANE BILL PASSES US BY THIS WEEKEND… LARGE SWELLS ATTRACT SURFERS UP AND DOWN THE COAST… SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO SOME AREAS

Hurricane Bill, a category 2 storm as of early Saturday morning,  is behaving as he was supposed to. Forecast models early this week had Bill moving well off our coast passing very close to Bermuda. The tiny island was basically brushed by the storm overnight. No significant damage was expected there. The large swells that Bill has created started building along our beaches on Friday and will increase today (Saturday). Surfers are loving that! Other than that, Bill will really have no effect on us here in Hampton Roads. What will affect us is a very slow moving cold front, which could bring some heavy showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Earlier in the week, forecasters thought that subsidence which occurs around hurricanes would suppress our rain chances with this front, but they haven’t said that today. So, it was the trough moving eastward that steered Bill off the coast. Will there be another threat from the tropics this season? Hard to tell. The peak of hurricane season is September 10th, so we have plenty of time left for development. Everyone should have their hurricane supplies and plans in order. Getting back to our weather… Today will be very humid with showers and storms developing later on. Be careful if you get caught in one as flooding is possible. Severe storms are a possibility also. The heavy rain threat continues tonight. On Sunday, the slow moving front will still be close enough to bring us a shower, especially in the morning. We dry out and cool off a bit on Monday. I’ll have an update on Sunday.

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