Archive for June, 2009

IT MAY BE SUMMER BUT THE WEATHERMAP WILL LOOK LIKE EARLY SPRING… A NORTHERLY BREEZE AROUND A COASTAL LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN OVER DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD

A cold front moved through Hampton Roads without much fanfare as most of the energy and dynamics was far to our north. The Northern Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeast had a miserable Saturday with rain and cool temperatures most of the day. Summer begins today (June 21st) but the set up on the weathermap will not be exactly summerlike.  A low pressure area is expected to strengthen off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern States and the resultant wind flow around that developing low will produce a northerly breeze. So, what does that mean for us here in Hampton Roads? Well, it really depends on the exact location of the low. Forecasters believe that there will be lots of passing clouds with just a slight chance (20%) of a shower over the next few days. Temperatures won’t be hard to take as the heat of Saturday are gone. Tides will run above normal, especially in our northern coastal waters. The low will slowly pull away and weaken later this week and this should cause our weather to become warmer and more humid, which is basically normal for late June weather for SE VA. You should get out there and enjoy the cooler temperatures as we know that since summer is here, we have a lot more heat and humdity to deal with over the next few months.

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HEAT AND HUMIDITY DOMINATE OUR SATURDAY AND THERE MAY BE A STORM IN SOME SPOTS… A NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY

Saturday is going to be a very warm one for Hampton Roads. The combination of temperatures over 90 and very high dew points will make it quite uncomfortable for most of us. An approaching cold front should destabilize the atmosphere enough to create a scattering of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some storms may reach severe levels so please be alert for rapidly changing conditions. On Sunday, a northerly breeze will be blowing transporting cooler, less humid air into the region. However, there will still be a slight chance of a shower. The heat should stay away through Tuesday…. Did you know that some parts of VA Beach received nearly 5 inches of rain Thursday night during those intense thunderstorms? I picked up 1.30 inches in my VA Beach backyard. I’ll have an update on Sunday.

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BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH PUSHES FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS… ONSHORE FLOW TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK… THAT MEANS NO HEAT WAVES FOR A WHILE

As the frontal system limped through SE VA and NE NC on Saturday, it touched off some showers and thunderstorms. About a quarter of an inch fell in my VA Beach backyard. Some areas received much more rain. Although there is still a slight chance of a shower or storm on Sunday, forecasters don’t think that much of Hampton Roads will see any rain. But with dew points still around 70, and a frontal boundary not really that far away, you cannot totally rule out some isolated convection. Normally, we don’t see activity when our winds are blowing from the N-NE. Weak disturbances moving through the Mid-Atlantic States early this week may produce a shower or thunderstorm late on Monday or early on Tuesday. The winds will be onshore most of the upcoming week, so temperatures should be rather pleasant, especially along coastal regions. Late in the week, the front that is south of us now, will return as a warm front. Based on that prediction, we should see a return to warmer, more humid weather by next weekend. The tropics are quiet for now (Sunday), which is expected at this time of year.

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A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO SOME SPOTS ON SATURDAY… FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS TO OUR NORTH

A cold front moving very slowly through our area may still be close enough to touch off a thunderstorm on Saturday, especially over inland spots. Note that the front is moving so slowly that on some weathermaps, it is classified as a stationary front. NE NC has the best shot of seeing any rain. On Friday, there were a few very heavy thunderstorms over NE NC. No significant rain fell in my neighborhood. Our humidity levels haven’t dropped so it will still be uncomfortable today (Saturday). A sea breeze will keep temperatures cooler at the shore. The NWS has the chance of precipitation at 30%. I checked the dew points and they are still quite high so any storms that do develop could produce heavy rain. Widespread severe weather is not expected. With the front still nearby on Sunday, there will still be a chance of a shower or storm, but it appears that the weather will be good for most outdoor activities. Early next week, high pressure is expected to build to our north and northeast. This will produce an onshore wind for much of the week keeping temperatures moderate. With the frontal boundary sinking further south, precipitation chances should go down on Tuesday and Wednesday. The heavy rain that fell last week has brought us closer to normal but we’re not quite there yet. Officially at ORF, we are about an inch below normal. I’ll have an update on Sunday.

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SUNDAY LOOKS GREAT WITH JUST SOME CLOUDINESS IN A FEW AREAS… WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID WEATHER START OUT THE WEEK WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF STORMS BY MID-WEEK

I drove up to NJ on Friday so I missed what apparently was some very heavy rain. My backyard gauge measured 3 inches which is a nice surprise after the dry period that we experienced in the latter part of May. That system that brought all the wet weather to nearly the entire east coast is offshore but a lingering area of disturbed weather remains to our south. NE NC may have some clouds today (Sunday) with a slight chance of a shower or two. Sunshine should be abundant north of the VA/NC border. As we head through the week, a series of short waves will most likely be moving by to our north bring the chance of some shower/thunderstorm activity.  A front is expected to stall close by late in the week further enhancing the rain chances so we might have a wet end to the week, similar to last week. We’ll see how that unfolds.

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