HURRICANE CRISTOBAL SHOULD TURN NORTHEAST AND HEAD OUT TO SEA… OUR WEATHER HERE IN HAMPTON ROADS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST

Currently, Hurricane Cristobal is moving very slowly to the north and forecasters are expecting the category one storm to begin turning northeastward. It’s forward speed is expected to pick up. The only impacts that it will have on the East Coast is an increase in wave heights and a high risk for rip currents. Surfers should enjoy some rare good surfing for a couple of days. By the weekend, the seas will be calming down as the storm moves further away. It’s really a best case scenario as both Bermuda and the East Coast of the U.S. will be spared the worst effects of this hurricane. The storm does not look that impressive on satellite imagery as it is not concentric. The storm will have a brief opportunity to strengthen before it encounters the cooler waters of the North Atlantic later in the week… Our local weather has been absolutely gorgeous over the past few days as the relatively cool northeasterly flow kept temperatures below seasonal norms. Humidity levels were also tolerable. Things are about to change but only slowly. Temperatures will be slowly climbing to more seasonal levels. Humidity levels will also be increasing making it a bit more uncomfortable. A weak front could bring an isolated shower/storm on Friday, but I doubt many of us will see any rain. The next chance of rain is on Monday or possibly late Sunday as another weakening front approaches. It should only bring just a chance of an isolated or scattered shower or thunderstorm. The Labor Day weekend looks like it will be decent weather-wise with typical late August weather…. We’re reaching the peak of hurricane season so forecasters will be keeping their eyes on tropical waves moving westward across the Atlantic. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading.

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A NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS… HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IS EXPECTED TO BRING PLEASANT WEATHER ON SUNDAY… A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR HISPANIOLA WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED

There will be lots of clouds around today (Saturday) and a northeasterly wind will keep temperatures below normal. There will be some showers here and there but many areas should remain dry today. High pressure slowly building southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic States will bring rather nice weather for our region beginning Sunday and it should last into the mid-week period. The big question is whether we will see any effects of what is now a tropical disturbance north of the island of Hispaniola. This system is expected to become better organized as it moves away from the mountainous island. It is expected to move near the Bahama Islands but there is a lot of uncertainty regarding its eventual track and intensity. Will it move close enough to the U.S. to bring rain and wind? Right now, forecasters aren’t sure. Wouldn’t it be something if Labor Day weekend was impacted by a tropical system just like July 4th was? It could turn out to sea but the computer models are all over the place regarding its track later next week. You should monitor this system as the situation unfolds… Regarding our current weather, we’ll have a northeasterly wind the next few days which means that there will not be any heat waves anytime soon. We should have more sunshine on Sunday and Monday. The weather later in the week depends on the eventual track of the aforementioned tropical system. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

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HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS RETURN TO HAMPTON ROADS… TYPICAL MID-AUGUST WEATHER SEEMS LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK

I’ve noticed since I moved to Virginia Beach back in 1998 that whenever a warmer and more humid air mass moves into the region during the nighttime hours in the late spring and summer, showers and thunderstorms sometimes develop. And sure enough, many folks were awoken last night to thunder and lightning. About a third of an inch of rain fell in my backyard but higher amounts were reported further to the north. The relatively pleasant air mass that moved into Hampton Roads on Thursday is now history, and we will be returning to a more typical weather pattern for the middle of August. As I’ve said before in previous posts, when humidity levels are high, it doesn’t take much of a trigger to cause showers and thunderstorms to pop up. Any type of boundary can be a trigger. This time of year, we see weakening cold fronts that stall out in our region causing a focal point for convection. Sea breeze boundaries can also cause convection as well as boundaries from thunderstorm downdrafts. Upper level disturbances, however, are usually the cause of thunderstorm development. So, the bottom line is that we will see a string of typical mid-August weather with a chance each day of a shower or storm. Some days the rain chances will be higher especially when a cold front approaches late on Monday and Tuesday… The tropical Atlantic is quiet for now but a disturbance has just moved off of the African coast that will have to be watched.

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THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES… SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY DUE TO A COLD FRONT

It was just a few days ago when weather forecasters were predicting a very wet weekend for Hampton Roads. A nearly stationary frontal boundary to our southwest combined with upper-level disturbances was supposed to bring significant rain to our region. Now, the heaviest rainfall is expected well to our south and west leaving most of us high and dry. A shower cannot be ruled out across Hampton Roads, but most of us should remain dry. An onshore flow will keep as a little on the cool side this weekend. The big question is how much clouds there will be from the system to our southwest. The next chance of showers and storms should come on Tuesday, when a cold front approaches the region. Moisture from the southwest may move in enhancing rain chances but right now that is not a certainty. Drier weather is likely later in the week… The tropical Atlantic is quiet for now.

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THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY… TROPICAL STORM BERTHA REMAINS DISORGANIZED

A frontal boundary is expected to stay nearly stationary over our region through Monday. This combined with waves of low pressure moving along the boundary and upper-level disturbances (shortwaves) are expected to produce occasional showers and thunderstorms through Monday. Some of the rainfall can be heavy at times. An area of heavy rain moved through Hampton Roads overnight dumping 0.90 inches of rain in my neighborhood early Saturday morning. There will be dry periods and there may even be a peak of sun at times. However, clouds are expected to dominate the skies throughout the weekend. In a pattern like this, it is very difficult for weather forecasters to predict exactly when and where the rain will be. As it looks right now, we should see less of a chance of rain by Tuesday. However, another system may bring a chance of showers/storms by mid-week… Tropical Storm Bertha, which is near Puerto Rico,  is struggling to stay alive as wind shear is taking its toll. The current forecast track takes it out to sea and not impacting the U.S. directly. Most of the forecast models are in agreement with this solution. The only impacts on the East Coast are expected to be an increased threat of rip currents. Please monitor the track of this tropical cyclone since the forecast track can change. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

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