WIND SHEAR, INTERACTION WITH LAND/MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND DRY AIR HAVE WREAKED HAVOC WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA… THE MAIN QUESTION NOW IS WHETHER THE STORM’S CIRCULATION CAN SURVIVE… OUR WEATHER HERE IN HAMPTON ROADS WILL BE PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES

As the headline states, Tropical Storm Erika has encountered strong wind shear, dry air, and it is now dealing with the mountainous terrain of the island of Hispaniola. It will soon have to also deal with the island of Cuba. Even though the storm’s overall circulation is larger than Danny’s, it is still very tough for a storm to survive such hostile conditions. Hispaniola has destroyed many tropical cyclones in the past. The disruption of a storm’s circulation by the mountainous island has caused the demise of these storms. The wind shear that destroyed Danny has also prevented Erika from intensifying. The storm was lopsided throughout a good portion of it’s journey westward, with the heaviest convection located east of its center. If it can survive its pass over Cuba this weekend, there is a chance that it could regain some strength as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Folks in Florida need to monitor Erika. The very warm water temperatures and possibly decreasing wind shear may enable the storm to make a comeback. But, that is definitely not a certainty. Note that even though Erika was not a hurricane, it has been deadly for the island of Dominica. Heavy rain caused devastating flooding in that small island. Some parts of the Caribbean have been enduring a drought so the rain was welcome in some areas. However, it came much too fast in some areas… Our weather this weekend will be seasonal and meteorologists don’t anticipate any major issues the next few days. We could use the rain, however. There is a very slight chance of a shower/storm Monday and possibly towards the end of the week, but right now, rain chances remain low throughout the forecast period. That’s it for now. Have a great weekend!

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THIS IS AN UPDATE DUE TO SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST… ALSO, THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD

I just wanted to post an update since the National Weather Service has now introduced a possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Although the chances are still rather low that your particular neighborhood will see rain on Tuesday, I wanted to ensure that everyone is aware that there is a chance of seeing a storm that day… As I mentioned in Saturday’s post, humidity levels will be increasing on Monday, so enjoy today’s pleasantly dry weather while it lasts. The forecast for later in the week is very uncertain as there is a huge discrepancy in the computer model forecasts. Some bring a cold front into our region on Thursday along with a chance of showers and storms. Another model keeps the front further north, thus reducing our chances of seeing any rain. I hope that we get some rain in my neighborhood since we were missed by the rain during last week’s frontal passage… There is now a tropical wave in the Eastern North Atlantic. We’ll have to keep an eye on that one as it travels westward. Although there are reports of the El Nino, wind shear, dry air, etc. etc. limiting this year’s hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin, it does not mean that there can’t be one major storm that impacts the U.S. Hurricane Andrew devastated parts of South Florida in August 1992 during a very below normal season. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

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THE SPECTACULAR WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND… A SLOW INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK… WE MAY SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER NEXT WEEK

The incredible weather that we’ve been experiencing of late will continue through the weekend. When dew points are in the 50’s in August, you know we are in a very unusual weather pattern. Normally, at this time of year, dew points are near 70 degrees. With a low risk for rip currents, this might be an ideal day to hit the beach. However, with the drier than usual air, you may feel a bit chilly when you leave the water. That is because the water on your skin will evaporate faster than it would if it was very humid outside. Evaporation creates a cooling effect on your skin, which is why we perspire when we are overheated. High pressure that has been causing the nice weather will slowly move offshore early next week. Our winds will shift to a more southerly direction. You know what that means…. an increase in heat and especially humidity. As it looks right now, rain chances should remain on the low side through the middle of next week. Once we get to Thursday or Friday, we should see a better chance of showers and storms, especially when a frontal system approaches. However, we still have several great days of beautiful weather to go so get out and enjoy it!… On the tropical scene, the Atlantic Basin is quiet, and as I’ve said before, we are approaching the time of year when we can have the long tracked tropical cyclones move westward across the Atlantic. It’s known as the Cape Verde season. No sign of any storms developing over the next day or two. El Nino and other factors are keeping a lid on hurricane season this year. However, don’t let your guard down. All it takes is one storm to impact our area. That’s it for now. Have a great weekend!

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A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IS GETTING OUR WEEKEND OFF TO A WET START, ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL AREAS… HOWEVER, SUNDAY SHOULD BE MUCH BETTER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS… MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY

It’s not going to be a good beach day today (Saturday) and for you boaters, I would not venture out. The pressure gradient between an area of low pressure off the NC coast and high pressure area well to our north will cause northeasterly winds to be relatively strong across the coastal waters, especially this afternoon. Rain has been affecting some parts of SE VA and NE NC this morning and it appears that the rain will only slowly taper off as we head through the day. Inland areas have been dry for the most part this morning. Rain amounts have varied greatly throughout the area the past few days. In my neighborhood, we picked up about an inch of rain since this system began affecting our region. Some areas have received much more, especially parts of NE NC. The northeasterly winds today are expected to bring up the tides, but only minor coastal flooding is expected. Also, the rip current threat will be elevated today. As the low pressure area slowly moves away, conditions will improve, and by Sunday, we should dry out and it could turn out quite nice. The good news is that we get a break from the heat. Monday should also be pleasant but rain chances will again begin increasing as another frontal system approaches. At this time, forecasters believe that the highest rain chances should be on Tuesday or Tuesday night. The tropical Atlantic continues to be free of tropical cyclones. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day.

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WE’LL HAVE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS… LATER THIS WEEK, WE SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AND AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS

The weather over the next few days will feature what we normally expect in early August here in Hampton Roads. That is warm temperatures and humid conditions with a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The chances of rain are low today (Monday) but will increase a bit on Tuesday as a weakening frontal boundary approaches. This morning, there is an area of rain moving by well to our south affecting parts of the Outer Banks of NC. Yesterday, while I was driving home from NJ on Route 13 in the Virginia Eastern Shore, I saw a thunderstorm in the distance well to our south. That storm dumped rain in parts of the Southside including my neighborhood. There was approximately 0.70 inches of rain in my backyard rain gauge, which may have included rain received last week while I was away… Forecasters believe that we may see slightly cooler conditions later this week along with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms… The tropical Atlantic is mostly quiet right now but there is a disturbed area in the Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Florida. This is supposed to bring a lot of rain to parts of Northern Florida today. We are now getting into the time of year when conditions become more favorable for tropical cyclone development so make sure you are prepared should a storm threaten this area. The Cape Verde season is about to begin which basically means that we are now approaching the time of year when a long tracked storm can develop far out in the Atlantic. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

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