A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY FORECAST FOR HAMPTON ROADS THIS WEEKEND… AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP ON SUNDAY, COOLER WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW NEXT WEEK

The current weather map has a high pressure area east of New England and a stationary front draped across the Northern Gulf Coast to the Atlantic coastal waters off of Florida. The clockwise flow around the high pressure area is creating an onshore flow today (Saturday). Low pressure is forecast to develop off the Southeast Coast and it is expected to move northeastward this weekend well offshore. Right now, the only effects that meteorologists are expecting here in Hampton Roads from this system are just a few showers or sprinkles with the highest chances along the coastal areas. Waves will be increasing along with a high risk for rip currents. Clouds will most likely dominate the skies on Saturday. If the current forecast holds, we should see improving weather on Sunday as the low moves away. Temperatures may be higher on Sunday as there should be more sunshine and the winds will be blowing offshore. Could the low pressure area come closer to the coast and bring us more rain than predicted? The computer models seem to agree that the system will pass too far offshore to create any significant rainfall. The Outer Banks may see some significant rainfall as that area is closer to the storm system. A cold front may bring us a shower on Monday but again rain chances won’t be that high. Cooler weather should follow for the remainder of the week along with dry conditions for the most part… The tropical Atlantic is quiet for now.

Leave a Comment

THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS… SUNDAY SHOULD BE COOLER AS A NORTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER… TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SHOULD BE A FISH STORM AS IT STAYS OUT TO SEA

 A trough of low pressure combined with a frontal system will bring a chance of showers later Saturday but we should have some sunshine as clouds come and go throughout the day. The chance of rain will diminish on Sunday as a northerly wind takes over. Sunday should be cooler with high temperatures not getting much above the lower 70′s, Another frontal system may bring a chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday. You may have heard how cool it is in the Northern Plains. Some areas have recorded their earliest snowfall ever! Is this an indication of what the winter will be like in the U.S.? Probably not. For example, a few years ago, the Northeast had a major snowstorm on Halloween. That turned out to be a very below normal snowfall season for the Northeast. So, early season snowfalls don’t indicate what the season will bring… Tropical Storm Edouard is expected to remain well offshore and it may stay east of Bermuda. It will most likely intensify into a hurricane. Another area of concern near Florida will have to be watched but upper-level winds are not favorable for development at this time. That’s it for now. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Leave a Comment

AFTER THE DELUGE EARLIER THIS WEEK, HAMPTON ROADS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DRY OUT… HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET WEATHER LIES AHEAD LATER THIS WEEK… TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER ON THURSDAY BUT COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE WEEK

In my neighborhood, 4.20 inches of rain fell Monday and Tuesday! Parts of Hampton Roads received even higher amounts as a low pressure system moved slowly through the region. The total for September is 7.80 inches in my area and we’re not even half way through the month! What makes this even more remarkable is that none of this rainfall is associated with a tropical system. The low pressure system is now well out to sea and we will see improving conditions later today (Wednesday). Thursday, we should see summer-like conditions with temperatures possibly approaching the 90 degree mark. Then, a cold front is expected to approach the region and stall out just to our south and east. Waves of low pressure are expected to move along the front, which should result in occasional wet weather again beginning Thursday night and lasting through the weekend. Yes, just what we need, more rain! However, the timing, intensity, and areal coverage of the anticipated wet weather is impossible to predict this far out. So, stay tuned. Hopefully, we don’t see the flooding rainfall that we saw earlier this week…. Regarding the tropics, there are no tropical cyclones currently in the Atlantic Basin. However, there are a couple of areas of concern. Today, September 10th is the peak of hurricane season on average in the North Atlantic. The average frequency of storms begins to decrease after today. Let’s hope that our luck holds out! That’s it for now. Thanks for reading!

Leave a Comment

THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT WE’VE ENDURED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS ABOUT TO END… A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES

It was quite a week here in Hampton Roads. We had a record breaking temperature of 99 degrees in Norfolk. My neighborhood picked up 3.60 inches of rain as slow moving storms just dumped on us. Some local flooding was reported and a home was struck by lightning here in Virginia Beach. It’s interesting how sometimes a very weak frontal system can produce copious amounts of rain as was the case on Thursday, while stronger cold fronts sometimes only produce small amounts of rain. Dew points being very high and the slow movement of the storms contributed to the high rainfall totals. There are other factors that caused the heavy rain on Thursday. Some parts of SE VA didn’t get much rain that day, but if the forecast verifies, most of us will get a good dose of rain over the next few days… Today (Saturday) will most likely be the last hot and humid day for a while as a cold front slowly approaches the region. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the area tonight and continue into Sunday. The front is expected to stall to our southeast early next week and a wave of low pressure may bring a period of rain/showers on Monday. Conditions should slowly improve by mid-week. Temperatures are expected to be lower beginning on Sunday as our winds become northerly and then northeasterly… The tropical Atlantic remains quiet which is quite remarkable since we are approaching the average peak of tropical cyclone activity, which is September 10th. That’s it for now. Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!

Leave a Comment

RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR LABOR DAY… ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE AIR CONDITIONERS HUMMING THE NEXT FEW DAYS

I’m posting to let you know that weather forecasters have lowered our rain chances for Monday (Labor Day). Although rain chances for Monday were never really that high to begin with, the thinking was that we would see a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. As I stated in my post on Saturday, there is no well-defined mechanism to produce rain but the computer models were indicating a 30 to 40 percent chance of rain. I stated that I thought the coverage would be minimal. Now, the probability of precipitation has been lowered to 20%… As I’ve mentioned many times throughout the spring and summer, when it is very humid and dew points are on the high side, it doesn’t take much to trigger a shower or storm. We are now in a very stable environment so there aren’t really any triggers around to produce convection despite the high humidity levels. Also, as we head into September, atmospheric instability tends to decrease since the sun’s intensity is lessening along with other factors. High pressure offshore has been keeping us rain-free and should continue to do so for the remainder of the weekend. See my “Weather Fact” entitled “What is the weather like in September in Hampton Roads?”.

Leave a Comment